770
FXUS62 KJAX 170523
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Showers and storms kept forecast higher temperatures from
developing today, followed the trend and lowered temperatures for
the remainder of the day and into the evening hours, with lows
expected to get to the mid 70s. A couple of showers are still
lingering over the Suwannee Valley Region and will begin to clear
out before midnight with winds becoming near calm through much of
the overnight hours over inland areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move eastward this afternoon, later interacting with the pinned
Atlantic sea breeze. Main hazards will be gusty winds and locally
heavy downpours. Convection will taper off around sunset, with
lows in the mid 70s inland, and upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Pattern for moist southwesterly flow with daily bouts of showers
and thunderstorms, forming most heavily along sea breeze
boundaries and areas of collision, will continue through midweek
with zonal flow becoming more enhanced by Thursday as the pressure
gradient between high pressure ridging to the south and the high
pressure boundary to the north tightens and results in a more
distinct southwesterly wind profile pressing back the diurnal east
coast sea breeze. Temperatures will continue to be above average
through this period with daily max temps reaching into the mid 90s
with Heat Advisory conditions possible during peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Prevailing flow will be out of the southwest through the end of
the week and then shift to become more out of the south and then
southeast by the end of the period as the ridge of high pressure
situated to the east shifts to be more to the northeast. Pattern
for daily bouts of convection forming along the sea breeze
boundaries and areas of collision will continue through the
weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the end of the
week and into the weekend with max temps rising into the 90s and a
potential for Heat Advisory conditions through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR is expected to predominantly prevail through the overnight and
morning period. Only exception will be VQQ where MVFR conditions
will be possible at times early this morning. Convection is
expected to move from west to east with the Gulf Coast Sea breeze
southwest flow across terminals this afternoon, as the east coast
sea breeze will be pinned from near I-95 to the coastline. Best
chance for strong TSRA will be for sites north and east of GNV
where sea breezes meet - TEMPO groups to be added later once
confidence in timing/magnitude of impacts increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida
peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind
flow in place across our local waters. Atlantic high pressure will
sink southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the
southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this
week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of our local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through tomorrow
for NE FL and SE GA beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  60  20  60  40
SSI  93  78  93  79 /  60  30  60  50
JAX  95  76  96  76 /  60  20  70  30
SGJ  94  77  94  77 /  60  20  60  20
GNV  92  73  94  74 /  70  10  70  20
OCF  93  75  94  75 /  70  10  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$