267
FXUS62 KJAX 170716
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A similar setup compared to Tuesday is looking likely again today
as our southwesterly flow regime continues near the surface with a
weak flow aloft. Both a persistence forecast method and Hi Res
guidance support an earlier start to diurnal convection this
afternoon, with a "surge" of Gulf sea breeze showers and t`storms
making their way from west to east this afternoon before running
into a nearly pinned east coast sea breeze by late afternoon and
into the evening. This I-95 corridor area will once again have
the best chance of any stronger storms with the primary collision
of boundaries, with gusts in the 40-55mph range possible and a
very isolated severe pulse storm not out of the question.

Highs are likely to peak during around the early afternoon hours
for most, generally in the low to mid 90s. Though depending on how
early and extent of the coverage of convection, it is quite
possible highs for a number of areas could underachieve a bit. The
earlier peak/onset of convection is also expected to keep apparent
temps below heat advisory criteria at this time.

A cold front over the Ohio River Valley today will start to sag
southward tonight, approaching northern GA by early Thursday
Morning. Some convection ahead of this boundary could attempt to
approach interior southeast GA after sunset and into the overnight
hours, though likely will not hold together much from about 10PM
onward. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild, in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A cold front to the north will slow while pushing into the
Southeastern US to end the week. Ahead the front, southwesterly
steering flow will increase locally resulting a progressive Gulf
(westerly) sea breeze each day while the Atlantic sea breeze becomes
pinned.

Thursday, widely scattered storms should begin to fire during the
late morning hours near the Big Bend and from there will spread
northeastward, propagating along the outflow. Activity may become
numerous in coverage as the outflow interacts with the Atlantic
sea breeze right along the coast during the early afternoon.
Appears convection will end swiftly as it pushes offshore and
dissipates. Given the background steering winds, a few storms
could be strong and produce gusty winds. Given a decent storm
motion, the threat of flooding will be minimal. Activity will fade
for most of the region but the aforementioned frontal boundary to
the north may progress far enough south and continue isolated
convection through the evening hours across SE GA. Decent mixing
should allow temperatures to push into the 90s but ultimately this
could be undercut by convection, depending on the nature of the
coverage that develops.

Friday, the setup will be similar but southwesterly flow will
slacken a bit and allow the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland a bit
farther. This will reposition the corridor of highest storm coverage
toward the I-95 corridor. More confident on temps pushing into the
mid 90s Friday with a later convective initiation. Heat index values
return to the upper 100s and Heat Advisories may need to be
considered.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A moist and unstable environment will fuel afternoon thunderstorms
through the weekend as ridging rebuilds to the east and steering
flow shifts southerly. Convection will be all sea breeze driven
through the weekend with highest PoPs focused inland where the sea
breeze fronts should collide.

Next week, stacked ridging shifts northward and opens the door for a
couple of easterly shortwaves to track into and across FL. Tough to
pinpoint timing but appears this feature could enhance convective
coverage and intensity Monday and possibly Tuesday.

Temperatures will be hot and humid, generally in the low 90s but
this could be adjusted depending on the convective/cloud coverage,
particularly next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR is expected to predominantly prevail through the overnight and
morning period. Only exception will be VQQ where MVFR conditions
will be possible at times early this morning. Convection is
expected to move from west to east with the Gulf Coast Sea breeze
southwest flow across terminals this afternoon, as the east coast
sea breeze will be pinned from near I-95 to the coastline. Best
chance for strong TSRA will be for sites north and east of GNV
where sea breezes meet - TEMPO groups to be added later once
confidence in timing/magnitude of impacts increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

High pressure ridging will remain persistent through Thursday as
the axis changes little in position. The ridge will sink slightly
southward Friday and into the weekend as a frontal boundary
enters the southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local
waters during this time frame as this boundary stalls to the
northwest of the region.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through Thursday
with the strengthening onshore flow daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  95  74 /  50  20  60  40
SSI  93  78  93  78 /  60  30  50  40
JAX  95  75  95  76 /  70  20  60  20
SGJ  93  76  94  77 /  70  20  50  20
GNV  92  73  93  74 /  70  20  60  10
OCF  92  75  93  75 /  70  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$