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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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195 FXUS62 KJAX 111736 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 823 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf West-Northwest flow will continue to prevail aloft with some "drier" air filtering into the region as a weak upper level trough remains east of the Peninsula while ridging persists downstate and across the Gulf. As a result PWATs will be below 1.5" north of I-10 with highest values near 2 inches across north central FL. Highest chances of rain remain from Crescent Beach to Citra southward today where scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise very limited to nil chances across the remaining area north of SR16. Current forecast has these trends covered very well. Highs will generally in the 90 to 95 degree range. Max heat indices will be nicer, generally in the 95 to 100 degree range. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The region will be between a short wave trough shifting eastward across the mid MS/lower OH valley and Great Lakes and an upper level low/weak surface trough northeast of the Bahamas. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will extend west to east along the Gulf coast into NE FL today and sink into north central FL through the afternoon as weak surface high pressure stays over the TN valley. Higher moisture levels will be over north central FL (PWATs up to 2.00 inches) while drier from I-10 northward as moisture stays a little below average (PWATs 1.4-1.6). Therefore, scattered showers and T`storms south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine with T`storms not expected northward due to the much drier air behind the front. Winds will be from the west northwest 5-10 mph with a weak, delayed Atlantic seabreeze pinned east of I-95. Lower dewpoints today will be in the lower 70s for much of NE FL south of I-10 and the mid 60s over SE GA. Highs will be in the low 90s south of I-10, around 90 over north central FL, and the mid 90s along I-95 and north of I-10 with low 90s at the beaches. Lower dewpoints will keep max heat index values 98-102. Skies will trend mostly clear overnight with dry conditions after sunset, with the upper low to the east continuing showers and T`storms east of the Gulf stream waters through sunrise. Winds will be light from the west northwest 3-5 mph. Lows will be near normal inland in the lower 70s and a bit above normal closer to the coast in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Friday...An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes south to the lower Mississippi River Valley. The tropical Disturbance in the Bahamas (see NHC Tropical Outlook) this morning, moves to eastern North Carolina by Friday morning with an elongated tail of showers and thunderstorms extending back to east coastal Florida and coastal Georgia then along the I-4 corridor into the Gulf of Mexico. Dry air intrusion around the back side of the low pressure area will decrease convection over the inland areas of NE FL and SE GA. The Bermuda Azores Ridge will be flattened on the west side and well offshore as the low progresses northward. With the dry air and subsidence behind the low high temperatures will be hot across the area with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. The good news is with low relative humidity values the heat index values will be limited with Heat index values "only" in the 98 to 103F range. Friday night...The tropical tail moves north of extreme north Florida with a few showers across the area early with rainfall diminishing soon after sunset. Low temperatures will average in the mid 70s. Saturday...The tropical tail starts the day oriented over the local coastal waters into Apalachee Bay with convection offshore in both areas at sunrise. An upper short wave trough digs into the Upper Mississippi River Valley with a col area over the Southeast States. Widely scattered convection will develop across the area Saturday afternoon and evening. High temps will be in the mid 90s, with general heat index values of 101 to 106F. Saturday night...That upper level short wave digs further southeast into the Appalachians with convection diminishing over the land areas but with widespread convection over the coastal waters and Apalachee Bay. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s yet again toward sunrise on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Sunday...As the short wave continues to drop southeast convection will be continuing overnight over the coastal waters and spreading back over the forecast area early. By Afternoon the sort wave will be over the eastern seaboard with widespread convection over the eastern portion of the area and a good chance of showers and thunderstorms inland. High temps will be in the mid 90s. Sunday Night...The short wave will be moving offshore with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight across the area early and diminishing after midnight. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s. Monday through Thursday...The Bermuda-Azores Ridge axis will build west over the south and central Florida peninsula, with a series of short wave troughs moving across the Great Lakes and New England. A surface trough will extend along the Gulf coast states into central Georgia and will be the focusing mechanism for scattered afternoon and evening showers and will allow widely scattered shower and thunderstorms to continue overnight. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with lows in the mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier airmass aloft and at the surface has suppressed any convection so far today, but enough heating and lingering moisture across NE FL has allowed for some SCT-BKN clouds to develop in the 4000-5000 ft range, but still only expecting a potential shower at SGJ/GNV through sunset and for now with chances so low, have only included VCSH for now. Otherwise VFR conds at all TAF sites with a late day East Coast sea breeze pushing into coastal TAF sites in the 20-22Z time frame. Light winds and VFR skies expected tonight with only the usual MVFR fog chances at VQQ towards sunrise. Late in the forecast period in the 15-18Z time frame expect some scattered cumulus development at all TAF sites and some model trends showing some isolated showers possible late in the period at SSI as low level moisture pushes onshore there. && .MARINE... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A weak trough to the east of the waters will move north towards the Carolina coast by Friday morning while moisture trails over the waters from the remnants of Beryl shifting from New England into the Canadian Maritimes. The Bermuda high ridge axis will remain across the FL peninsula with southerly winds and daily afternoon seabreeze circulation that will induce southeasterly winds near shore where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop and persist into the early evening hours. Rip Currents: Offshore westerly winds will create a low risk for rip currents at all area beaches today. A moderate risk of rip currents will return on Friday as the Atlantic seabreeze moves onshore with southeasterly winds 8-12 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...HIGH DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON... Drier conditions across the Forecast Area with the majority of the convection from FL State Road 20 southward. Dispersion values will max out in the 70 to 80 ranges this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 74 96 75 / 0 0 30 0 SSI 93 79 92 81 / 0 10 40 20 JAX 95 76 96 77 / 10 10 40 10 SGJ 92 77 94 79 / 20 10 50 10 GNV 91 74 95 75 / 30 10 40 10 OCF 90 74 93 76 / 50 10 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$