866
FXUS62 KJAX 111803
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track as weak low pressure development
offshore this afternoon has continued to pull a drier airmass
southward into SE GA and along the I-10 corridor of NE FL. Still
expecting enough diurnal heating this afternoon to kick off some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across NE FL south of
the I-10 corridor, but not expecting activity to linger much past
sunset and just expecting some high cloudiness aloft as low temps
fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the
Atlantic Coastal areas. The low pressure trough over the Atlantic
will drift slowly to the W-NW and bring an increase in convection
over the Atlantic Coastal waters after midnight and will likely
approach portions of the Southeast Georgia coastal counties
towards morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Low pressure just offshore in the Atlantic is expected to shift
inland on the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Dry air intrusion
around the back side of this low will keep our western counties
fairly dry, with the eastern counties having about 20-40%
precipitation chances on Friday. Temperatures will be able to
climb into the mid to upper 90s for most of SE GA and NE FL with
less cloud cover, although head indices will max out in the
100-105 range with the help of lower dewpoints.

Temperatures will stay above normal Saturday as the low pressure
again keeps GA on the drier side, with scattered storms likely
north of I-10, with higher coverage over north central Florida as
southerly flow allows both sea breezes to push inland and
interact.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Southerly steering flow will bring in higher moisture this
weekend, with PWATs jumping above 2.0" area-wide. A more typical
summertime setup will be in place, with sea breeze interactions
each day allowing scattered to numerous diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain above normal during this
period, with a gradual decrease in the high temperature forecast
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Drier airmass aloft and at the surface has suppressed any
convection so far today, but enough heating and lingering moisture
across NE FL has allowed for some SCT-BKN clouds to develop in the
4000-5000 ft range, but still only expecting a potential shower at
SGJ/GNV through sunset and for now with chances so low, have only
included VCSH for now. Otherwise VFR conds at all TAF sites with a
late day East Coast sea breeze pushing into coastal TAF sites in
the 20-22Z time frame. Light winds and VFR skies expected tonight
with only the usual MVFR fog chances at VQQ towards sunrise. Late
in the forecast period in the 15-18Z time frame expect some
scattered cumulus development at all TAF sites and some model
trends showing some isolated showers possible late in the period
at SSI as low level moisture pushes onshore there.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

No headlines are expected as offshore Northwest flow today becomes
Southwest tonight, then southerly on Friday, all mainly in the
10-15 knot range with seas 2-4 ft. This is all based on low
pressure trough pushing to the NW and staying north of the local
waters with only weak development expected over the next 1-2 days.
Into the weekend and early next week a general south to southwest
flow pattern at 10-15 knots with local sea breezes along the coast
each afternoon/evening. Some brief nocturnal surges may reach into
the 15-20 knot range at times, but overall do not expect any
headlines over the next 5 days.

Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents will continue
with a mainly offshore flow with a weak sea breeze expected each
day into the weekend. Surf breakers of 1-2 ft today, will slowly
build into the 2-3 ft range by the weekend as longer period swells
reach the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  96  75  97 /  10  20   0  30
SSI  79  92  81  93 /  10  30  10  30
JAX  75  97  77  97 /  10  30  10  50
SGJ  76  95  78  94 /  10  30  10  50
GNV  74  95  74  95 /  10  20   0  60
OCF  73  94  75  94 /  20  40  10  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$