403
FXUS62 KJAX 131619
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1219 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast on track as hot and humid conditions expected again today
with highs into the mid/upper 90s over inland areas and lower 90s
at the Atlantic beaches of NE FL/SE GA. This will combine with a
slight increase in low level humidity levels to produce peak heat
indices into the 104-108F range this afternoon. Increase in
moisture levels aloft across north central Florida with PWATs
closer to 2 inches should lead to scattered to numerous afternoon
storms there from sea breeze/outflow interactions, while areas
from I-10 northward across most of SE GA still have some drier air
aloft and expect widely scattered storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. A few inland showers/storms should linger until
around midnight tonight then fair skies and humid conditions
overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s
to near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas and St. Johns River
Basin.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)...

A transition back to a more typical summertime convection regime
will occur today as a tongue of deep moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.0"+),
currently plastered across southern and central FL, is gradually
pushed northward. As this unfolds, a tight moisture gradient will
set up with the deepest moisture generally south of I-10 and along
the coast. It is in these areas where scattered to numerous
showers and t`storms will develop this afternoon. The presence of
a slow-moving easterly wave aloft, a couple dry layers in the low
levels, and steep low level lapse rates will aid in deep
convection and potential for strong downbursts (40-60 mph), mainly
along and south of line from Gainesville to St Augustine. Given
light steering flow, storm motion will be mainly outflow
dominant; though it`s been dry over the last couple days,
isolated bouts of minor flooding could still occur in prone areas
(low-lying or urban). Scattered showers and isolated storms are
also possible along the east coast sea breeze today but should be
more garden-variety in nature north of I-10. Activity will fade
rather quickly after sunset with skies trending mostly clear
tonight.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it will be another
toasty day and increasing dewpoints will bolster heat index
across NE FL. Ambient readings will peak around the mid 90s in NE
FL and upper 90s in SE GA where drier air lingers. Could be a few
localized areas along the immediate coast that reach heat index
around 108 but anticipate most locations to stay below the Heat
Advisory level, thus no headlines have been posted this morning.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday Night)

Steering flow will remain weak and generally south to
southwesterly through the short term period, which in essence will
keep the sea breeze pinned a bit closer to the coast during the
afternoon and evening daily. Layer moisture will continue to
return closer to normal levels Sunday and into Monday as well as
PWATs climb to 2" or higher, and therefore sea breeze
shower/t`storm activity also trends closer to normal with each day
with heavy downpours expected. The more southwesterly flow will
also persist high temps above normal for both Sunday and Monday,
with widespread mid 90s expected and some readings in the upper
90s possible over some inland areas, especially over inland
southeast GA. These temps combined with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 70s in some spots will peak heat indices close to heat
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)...

A similar pattern is expected to continue into Tuesday and the mid
week period, with high chances for diurnal showers and t`storms
and a weak flow regime. A frontal boundary starts to drop
southward towards northern GA by Thursday and Friday, which could
bring the potential for more widespread rain chances for the area.
Temperatures are expected to be on a slight downward trend through
the long term, above average Tuesday and Wednesday and closer to
normal by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Shift towards a slightly wetter more typical summertime pattern
with scattered shower/storm potential at all TAF sites during the
afternoon/evening hours, but with storm chances less than 50
percent will continue to trend with just VCTS for now at all TAF
sites in that time frame as a weak East Coast sea breeze pushes
slowly inland this afternoon. Activity fades after sunset with
mainly VFR conds expected through the overnight hours and too
early to include any fog chances at inland TAF sites since probs
are too low at this time, even for VQQ. Light winds expected
during the Sunday morning time frame with mainly VFR conds and
rainfall chances are either at the end or past of the current TAF
period, so will not include yet.

&&

.MARINE...

Bermuda high pressure will become the dominant feature today with
very little change in the broader pattern through the next week.
A predominant southerly flow will be in place with afternoon sea
breeze development each day. Seas will gradually build through the
weekend into early next week as a modest onshore swell reaches
the local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours each
day.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all local beaches
this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  74  97  76 /  10  10  40  10
SSI  92  80  93  79 /  30  20  40  20
JAX  97  76  96  76 /  40  20  60  20
SGJ  94  76  93  77 /  40  20  60  30
GNV  95  74  93  74 /  50  30  70  20
OCF  94  73  93  76 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$