278
FXUS62 KJAX 140719
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
319 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)...

Deepening moisture amid the stagnant, light flow pattern in place
should trend t`storm coverage up across NE FL this afternoon.
Lingering presence of dry air across SE GA should keep coverage
isolated to widely scattered at best. Given the near absence in
steering flow, the sea breezes will push in from both coasts,
somewhat slowly given the warmth of the waters (SSTs 83-88F).
Convection will likely become outflow-dominant as it pushes
slowly inland this afternoon. Anticipate the diurnal convection to
begin to fade by sunset but a few showers may bubble up along
outflow interactions through midnight tonight. Leftover convective
debris clouds will gradually dissipate through the night, leaving
mostly clear skies.

Deep moisture and slow-moving storms will yield a risk for
localized flooding, particularly across NE FL and south of I-10
where the deepest moisture will exist. However, the rain-free
stretch of weather should preclude the risk of significant
flooding. A secondary concern will be strong downbursts and
resulting outflow winds around 30-50 mph with the deeper
convective pulses this afternoon.

Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, particularly
at the coast where dew points will rise into the upper 70s and low
80s with the sea breeze, pushing heat index to 107-110F. A Heat
Advisory for all of the coastal counties will be in effect this
afternoon. Inland zones will be hot as well but heat index values
are more likely to stay below 108F, so held of on issuing any
additional heat headlines. Take precautions when working outdoors
today and take frequent breaks to hydrate/cool off.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

Light south/southwesterly flow continues Monday, which not only
keeps a strong sea breeze influence, but also continues to fill in
more tropical moisture area wide with PWATs of 2+ inches. The mean
layer flow looks just at touch stronger tomorrow, which keeps the
sea breeze slightly closer to the coast compared to Sunday. Though
should still be enough inland progress for convection to spread
away from the coast, especially with various  boundaries and
collisions. Dew points over 70 will once again be the norm, even
over southeast GA, after some "drier" values in the upper 60s for
some this weekend. The aforementioned conditions will once again
keep most of the area flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria, as
highs top out in the mid to upper 90s. Continuing to sound like a
broken record, but a very similar type of setup is expected into
Tuesday as well, with mid to upper 90s and near or slightly below
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Surface ridging slowly starts to tighten up just a bit from mid
to late week as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Wednesday
looks to be a pretty persistent summertime-like day before some
energy from the associated upper trough actually looks to dig
decently far southward into the southeast US by the Thursday to
Saturday time frame. This could help to enhance rain chances for
this period, especially from near I-10 northward into southeast GA
as the aforementioned boundary stalls just north of the region.
Though sea breeze driven convection is likely to remain quite
present further south into northeast FL.

Temperatures for this period start slightly above average
Wednesday, but will overall trend slightly downward towards normal
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Steady VFR conditions through the period outside of convective
influences. Scattered t`storms will develop along the sea breeze
this afternoon. Given the pulse nature of storms, confidence is
not high enough to support TEMPO mentions at this time. Concerns
with convection will be downburst/outflow winds and occasional
visibility restriction due to downpours. Convection should push
inland through the afternoon and evening, eventually fading around
after sunset. Light winds will prevail through the period,
favoring southerly direction until the Atlantic sea breeze pushes
inland during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Ridge axis extended from the Bermuda high pressure will set up
south of the waters resulting in an offshore flow through
Wednesday. Daily surges of south-southeasterly winds will develop
across the nearshore waters with the development of the afternoon
sea breeze each day. Seas will build slightly today as a
southeasterly swell arrives and remain elevated, around 3 to 4
feet through at least midweek. Most thunderstorm activity this
afternoon will be inland. However, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early
evening hours each day during the first half of the upcoming week.

Rip Currents: Building surf and the Atlantic sea breeze will lead
to a moderate risk of rip currents today and Monday at area
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  70  20
SSI  94  79  93  79 /  30  20  50  20
JAX  96  76  96  75 /  50  20  60  20
SGJ  94  77  94  77 /  50  20  50  20
GNV  94  74  93  74 /  60  30  70  20
OCF  93  75  93  75 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ024-033-038-124-125-133-138-225-325-425.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ153-154-165-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$