956
FXUS62 KJAX 141813
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East coast sea breeze is pinned close to the Atlantic coast and
with a synoptic westerly flow will only make slow progress inland.
Convection is beginning to fire near the Intracoastal waterway
and again will more slowly inland. The Gulf sea breeze is making a
bit more progress inland and should enhance the squeezing over
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and eventually across inland
SE Georgia this evening. Highest chances of precipitation will be
over the Ocala/Ocala National forest areas northward into
Gainesville. Convection will gradually begin to diminish after
sunset, end last over the central Florida peninsula and Marion
County.

Highs will be in the upper 90s with Heat Index values in the
104-107F range inland and with higher relative humidity along the
coast 107-110F. Thus will maintain the Heat Advisory along the
coast into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough
just to the northwest this period. This pattern will yield a moist
and unstable south southwest flow, with convection in the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will trend above normal. Heat
indices may be in range of advisory levels again on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

High pressure will be centered to the east through Friday, as a
persistent trough lingers to the northwest. This pattern will yield
a south southwest flow. This flow will yield a moist and unstable
airmass, with diurnal convection expected. Convection will initiate
on the Gulf sea breeze, then spread across the area through the
afternoon hours. Temperatures will trend a little above normal.

The high will build more toward the east northeast on over the
weekend. With this pattern the flow will be more from the south.
This will produce diurnal convection, with temperatures running a
little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Convection will be predicated on the east coast sea breeze front
progress inland and the stronger Gulf-Atlantic sea breeze front
convergence in the Gainesville area. Overall will see widely
scattered convection developing in the Jacksonville metro and
Gainesville areas between 18:00 and 24:00 utc. Overall ceilings
should be between 4-6 KFT with the storms and will be looking at
variable wind gusts up to 30 KTs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The Bermuda-Azores High axis will be centered across the
central Florida peninsula with a synoptic southwesterly to
westerly flow pattern through mid-week. The flow pattern will be
broken during the late afternoon and evening hours with a
southerly to southeasterly flow as the sea breeze develops.
Nocturnal wind surges around the western periphery of the ridge
could briefly reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria
during the overnight hours but again only for a short period.
Isolated convection during the daylight hours with widely
scattered nocturnal convection.

Rip Currents: Will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents
through tomorrow at area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  97  75  96 /  30  60  20  60
SSI  79  94  79  93 /  10  50  30  50
JAX  76  96  76  96 /  20  70  20  60
SGJ  77  94  76  94 /  10  70  20  50
GNV  74  93  74  94 /  30  80  10  60
OCF  75  94  75  95 /  40  90  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ024-033-038-124-
     125-133-138-225-325-425.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-154-165-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$