369
FXUS62 KJAX 071724
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
124 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon...Light South to Southwest steering flow will
combine with a moist atmosphere (PWATs of 2 inches or more) across
all of NE FL/SE GA will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, mainly over inland areas as the East
Coast/Gulf Coast sea breezes should be able to push inland and
support the greatest coverage of storms between the US 301 and
I-75 corridors. The weak steering flow will support slow and
erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less and heavy rainfall will
remain the main storm threat with localized flooding concerns in
urban areas and other areas that have received recent heavy
rainfall. The delayed start to convection until the early to mid
afternoon hours will support Max temps into the lower to middle
90s and combining with dew points into the middle to upper 70s
will support peak heat indices into the 105-110 range and expect
pockets of Heat Advisory level readings of >= 108F, but likely not
enough to change the last shift`s decision to hold off with a Heat
Advisory for today.

Tonight...Scattered to numerous slow moving storms are expected to
be ongoing over inland areas this evening with a slow drift back
towards the Atlantic Coast as they weaken due to the westerly mid
level winds. Activity should fade and slowly dissipate into
lingering shower activity towards midnight with isolated
convection possible after midnight due to leftover boundaries and
any untapped instability. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies from leftover mid and high convective debris cloudiness
which will keep warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows in
the mid/upper 70s inland and near 80 along the Atlantic Coast and
St. Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Weak high pressure over the area Monday and Tuesday provides light westerly
winds over inland areas. These light winds along with a frontal
boundary draped over Georgia and ample moisture (PWAT values of
2.2-2.7 inches) will allow for the formation of afternoon into
evening showers and Thunderstorms each day. Convection will be
widely scattered becoming numerous as temperatures increase
throughout the day, providing more instability for convection to
form. Convection will pop up along the Gulf coast sea-breeze as it
makes its way inland toward the Atlantic coast.

Monday, daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s cooling
into the mid 70s inland overnight staying a bit warmer along the
coast. Tuesday will see cooler daytime temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Moisture remains in place into the end of next weekend with PWAT
values staying above 2 inches. Winds shift from westerly to south
southeasterly as ridging over the area shifts northward towards
the end of the week. Afternoon into evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day along sea-breeze convergence
with convection concentrated more along I-95 shifting further
inland Friday and for the weekend with the more southerly winds.
Temperatures look to stay around the low to mid 90s during the day
to mid 70s inland overnight.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Not much change expected for the upcoming TAF set as convection
has already kicked off west of all of the TAF sites and is
expected to drift slowly back towards the inland TAF sites of GNV,
VQQ and JAX through the afternoon/evening hours and will keep
current TEMPO groups going for potential MVFR CIGS/VSBYS, while
the East Coast sea breeze not looking very active at the moment
and the coastal TAF sites of CRG, SGJ and SSI should be able to be
held out with just VCTS or VCSH as most convection stays west of
the terminals or remains weak enough at this time. Convection
chances fade at terminals after sunset and mostly end by the 03Z
time frame with just lingering mid/high clouds through the
overnight hours which should keep fog chances to a minimum and
will continue to leave out of the forecast at this time. Any
rainfall chances on Monday morning appear too low to include or
will likely occur after the current TAF period ends at 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A surface front will linger across Georgia through mid-week as
surface high pressure extends across the Florida peninsula.
Southerly winds will prevail with daily sea breezes and mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today and Monday at all
area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Weak high pressure over the area into the weekend, shifting more
northward towards Friday will shift winds from westerly at the
beginning of the week to more southerly by Friday. Ample moisture
leaves minRH values of 50-80 percent for the week. Expect
afternoon/evening rain showers and thunderstorms mainly south of
the stalled frontal boundary in GA and along sea-breeze
convergence. Convection will be scattered to numerous as daytime
temperatures increase. Low dispersions today of 20-30 increasing
to 30-40 by Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  93  76  92 /  50  80  20  80
SSI  79  92  79  91 /  30  80  40  90
JAX  77  95  76  93 /  30  90  30  90
SGJ  78  95  76  91 /  20  80  40  90
GNV  75  94  74  89 /  40  90  30  90
OCF  76  94  76  89 /  50  90  40  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$