669
FXUS62 KJAX 160741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
341 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A pretty status quo persistence type of forecast continues into
today, as the strength and orientation of low level ridging across
the area continues a light to modest south/southwest flow and
temperatures a bit above normal. The flow should once again be
strong enough to keep the sea breeze pinned close to the I-95
corridor area, with a surge from the Gulf sea breeze and usual
microscale boundaries helping to fuel daytime convection.

A weak/subtle mid level shortwave/low embedded within a more
elongated trough over the southeast US will move across southern
GA through this evening, which should help to enhance convective
activity over this area compared to Monday. Overall expecting
numerous coverage for most of the area by this afternoon, with the
above mentioned smaller scale boundaries be the main driving force
over northeast FL compared to slightly more synoptic forcing
further north. Similar to the past few days, locally strong pulse
storms will be possible with some gusty winds up to the 40-50mph
range. However, buoyancy does look to be generally more of a "long
skinny" CAPE type profile, and therefore torrential downpours and
minor flooding the other primary hazard with high PWATs of 2
inches +.

As mentioned above, temperatures are expected to remain a bit
above average today, in combination with dew points in the mid 70s
to upper 70s closer to the coast. Should stay mainly below heat
advisory criteria inland where some more afternoon mixing occurs.
However, have placed coastal regions in a heat advisory this
afternoon and evening where apparent temps in the 105-110 range
will be the normal for a good portion of the day.

Convection mostly wanes after sunset tonight, though activity over
southeast GA and especially coastal/offshore GA may take a bit
longer to settle down due to the aforementioned weak synoptic
forcing lingering. Lows in the mid to upper 70s expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Persistence in the broader synoptic flow pattern continues
through the Thursday with the western extension of the Bermuda
ridge laying to the south and troughing positioned to the
northwest. Initially on Wednesday the southwesterly flow between
those features will be fairly light allowing the Atlantic sea
breeze to push inland toward the I-95 corridor. By Thursday,
gradients will tighten as a reinforcing shortwave digs across the
eastern US and briefly flattens the ridge. This will enhance zonal
flow enough to keep the sea breeze pinned to the beaches or
offshore a few miles Thursday afternoon. All in all, the Gulf sea
breeze will be dominant and interact with the Atlantic sea breeze
each afternoon, leading to numerous showers and storms along the
collision corridor. Storm characteristics Wednesday will mostly
standard-issue with a few strong storms possible. Stronger storms
may be more common and occur an earlier in the day Thursday due to
the enhanced steering winds. The stretch of hotter than normal
heat continues and Heat Advisories may be in order each day.
Ambient temps will generally max out in the mid/upper 90s with
lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moist, hot, and unstable conditions will fuel diurnal convection
through the weekend as steering flow trends southerly. The sea
breeze merger will shift inland through the weekend amid the
southerly flow with "likely" storms each day along the collision
zone. Due to the blocking ridge aloft, don`t anticipate the stalled
frontal zone to the north to sag far enough south to enhance flood
or severe storm risk across SE GA. Same story appears to continue
into next week with above normal storm chances. The one feature to
note is an easterly wave that a few ensemble members propagate
across the Caribbean and northwestward across the Florida
peninsula Monday and Tuesday. This could bring an additional surge
of tropical moisture and enhance the threat of strong/severe
storms but it`s far too early to get overly detailed. Temperatures
should trend toward typical mid July readings, low 90s, during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR expected to prevail at all terminals except VQQ through the
morning hours, where MVFR will be possible at times. Similar
diurnal convection will be expected by the afternoon on Tuesday.
The sea breeze will be mostly pinned close to the coast, though
still expecting enough inland progress for a wind shift at all
sites except GNV. VQQ has the most uncertainty with respect to sea
breeze wind shift, as it is possible the boundary will not make it
that far inland. Similar to Monday, confidence is high enough for
TEMPO groups at all sites, featuring MVFR to possible IFR vsby
conditions, and gusty downburst winds. Stay tuned throughout the
day for timing/impact updates to these groups.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida
peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind
flow in place across our local waters. Atlantic high pressure will
sink southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the
southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this
week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of the region.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate at all area
beaches through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  76 /  60  30  60  20
SSI  92  79  92  78 /  50  40  60  30
JAX  95  76  95  76 /  70  40  60  20
SGJ  94  77  94  77 /  60  40  60  20
GNV  94  73  93  73 /  70  40  70  10
OCF  94  75  93  75 /  70  40  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$