Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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372 FXUS64 KJAN 090607 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 107 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Through Tuesday: Tropical Storm Beryl is now lifting northward across East TX, and has prompted the development of numerous tornadoes across eastern TX and western LA where low level shear is currently strong. The bulk of precip with the system is focused near and north of the center with trailing convective bands to the southeast. While this will keep most precip near the track of the center and west of our area, some of the trailing bands may shift into or build eastward into our area very late this afternoon into tonight. Training of such a rain band tonight could drop a localized inch or two of rain, but no widespread flooding threat is anticipated. Ambient upper flow is strong enough that this activity could pull isolated damaging wind gusts to the surface, mainly west of I-55 heading into this evening. Stronger low level SRH is not expected to move into our area until very late tonight or early Tuesday morning around the time these bands may be decreasing. However, there is still conditional potential for a tornado mainly along and west of the MS River this evening if there becomes sufficient overlay between the increasing shear and advancing convective bands. For these hazards, a marginal severe weather risk continues to be advertised into tonight. Outside of convection, gradient wind will increase late tonight through Tuesday across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS closer to the center of Beryl. Wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible in those areas, which could result in downed limbs or even weak trees. Lingering showers and perhaps an isolated storm will shift eastward across the area early in the day Tuesday, but model guidance indicates dry air will begin to wrap around Beryl and across our region, causing rain chances to drop off from west to east through the daytime. However, lower clouds and some lighter rain may linger later into the day from the ArkLaMiss Delta into north MS closer to the center of the storm. In addition, outside of more dense sky cover, sufficient warming and lingering humidity is expected across east MS to achieve heat indices around 105F. For this, we will highlight limited heat stress potential. Wednesday through Friday: With drier air moving into the region behind Beryl, it appears we will experience a pleasant break from high humidity and heat stress. On Wednesday, temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms or even slightly below, though they will trend back upward through the end of the week. Dewpoints will fall into the 60s at times, and morning low temps in the 60s are even possible if not likely across a large chunk of the area. Rain chances will be limited, but isolated afternoon convection still can`t be ruled out across south MS and south LA, especially toward the end of the week as moisture very slowly recovers. Saturday through next Monday: For this weekend, mid/upper ridging over the Southeast US coast will build westward and expand along the northern Gulf Coast. This will result in a trend back to seasonably warmer conditions with high temps getting back into the upper 90s in some spots. Deep layer and low level moisture will also steadily increase again by this time frame, so heat stress may become an increasing issue again as heat indices in the triple digits become more common. Somewhat greater, albeit still isolated to scattered, coverage of diurnal convection is also expected. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 106 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through around 10Z at most sites with the exception of HEZ which has observed isolated -SHRA/VCTS. After 10Z isolated to scattered SHRA/VCTS will be possible at most sites as remnant TS Beryl activity moves east. Winds will generally be out of the south west with gusts of around 25KTS possible. Sites will possible drop in category to MVFR around 10Z before improving back to VFR around 16Z./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 70 89 70 / 30 10 10 10 Meridian 93 70 91 69 / 60 20 20 10 Vicksburg 86 69 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 93 73 93 72 / 70 10 20 10 Natchez 87 70 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 Greenville 83 69 88 69 / 30 20 10 10 Greenwood 88 69 88 69 / 30 20 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/DL/86