Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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708 FXUS64 KJAN 091531 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1031 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Morning Update... GOES-16 visible satellite show the remnants of TC Beryl, embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley, tracking northward. At the same time, current radar scans show a line of scattered showers and storms tracking east across the area this morning. The convection associated with these bands of precip have been relatively low due to the north-south orientation of these storms along with the strong gradient winds associated. Except some low end pop chances across most of central MS through this morning (30-45%), with slightly higher rain chances (around 65%) across the Pine Belt. Rainfall amounts could get between 0.10 - 0.25in across the area with locally higher amounts possible. Later in the afternoon, relatively dry air will begin to wrap around the remnants of TC Beryl clearing convective potential from west to east across our forecast area. Areas west of I-55 will see afternoon highs peak in the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, areas east of I-55 will see daytime highs peak in the low 90s. A limited wind threat will continue through this afternoon for portions of northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS with wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range possible. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Today through Tonight: The remnants of TC Beryl embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will be the main weather influence today as the system continues to track northward. Currently bands of precip have moved across the MS river as it continues its track eastward across the area. These bands don`t have much associated precip with the north south orientation and it being a generally fast moving system with strong gradient winds associated. Expect area wide pop chances with between 0.10- 0.25in of accumulated rainfall with possibilities for locally higher amounts throughout the day. Behind the intial band of showers will be a dry slot as relatively dry air wraps around TC Beryl clearing convective potential from west to east throughout the day. A limited wind threat will continue through this afternoon for portions of northeast LA, southeast AR and northwest MS as wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible, which could result in downed limbs or even weak trees. As to heat potential, the limited threat has been removed from the graphical HWO. Strong gradient winds, increased cloud cover and precip will combine to limit heating across the CWA. Heat indices will struggle to reach heat thresholds of 105 degrees and if achieved won`t be prolonged for more than an hour or two. /KP/ Wednesday through Monday: Come Wednesday morning the remnants of Beryl will be well to our northeast and a drier airmass along with lower heights will be over most of our CWA. The exception will be our southeast where a stalled boundary along with PWATs in excess of two inches will still reside. This moisture will lead to a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Most sites will top out in the lower 90s which is near normal. The drier airmass and near normal highs will result in peak heat index values below 105F so wl see a little reprieve from the recent heat wave. Upper level troughing will swing east across the region Thursday into Friday while a surface high centered north of our CWA shifts east as well. This will serve to limit return moisture and keep the low chance for afternoon convection limited to our southern zones. Friday through the weekend the stout mid level ridge to our west will gradually spread east while surface ridging reestablishes itself along the Gulf coast from the east. A warming trend with gradually increasing deep moisture will be the result. This will lead to a greater coverage of diurnally driven convection but also higher peak index values. A Heat Advisory at least for the western portions of the CWA is likely again by Sunday. This Heat Advisory will likely be expanded Monday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs along with isold SHRA wl prevail through the afternoon with VFR conditions expected after 01Z Wed. A gusty sw-s wind 20-25kts wl develop this morning with the strongest wind across the nw. These gusty winds will last through the aftn before subsiding this evening. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 70 91 71 / 60 10 10 0 Meridian 93 70 92 70 / 60 20 10 0 Vicksburg 88 70 91 70 / 20 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 92 74 93 72 / 70 30 20 10 Natchez 89 71 91 71 / 20 0 10 0 Greenville 85 69 90 70 / 20 10 0 0 Greenwood 89 68 90 69 / 50 10 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/22/22