438
FXUS64 KJAN 100131
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
831 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Generally light cyclonic flow devoid of active showers continues
across the area this evening as the remnants of TC Beryl drift
northeast and away from the area. The forecast remains on track
with temperatures slowly falling into the upper 60s north to the
middle 70s south leading to a noticeably cooler and less humid
overnight than we have seen in a while as drier air behind the
departing cyclone is dragged south and east. Skies will be partly
cloudy as we reach dawn with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s F.
/86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Rain chances will continue to diminish heading into the evening as
global guidance continues to show the remnants of TC Beryl pushing
northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. This will allow for a drier
airmass to push across central MS leading to quiet conditions across
the southeast CONUS heading into the overnight period. Cloud cover
will begin to decrease across the area allowing for areas north of I-
20 to see nighttime temperatures in the upper 60s. Elsewhere, areas
along and south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low 70s.
Heading into Wednesday morning, the remnants of TC Beryl will be
well to our northeast as a drier airmass continues to push across
our area. The exception will be over our southeast where global
guidance has highlighted a stalled boundary along with PWATs in
excess of two inches. This leftover moisture from the Gulf will
introduce some low pop chances (around 35%) during the afternoon.
Afternoon highs will peak around the low 90s around this timeframe
which is near normal. The combination of the dry airmass and near
normal highs will allow for heat indices to reach below 105F.

Wednesday Night through Tuesday...

Heading into Wednesday evening quiet conditions will occur across
the forecast area as the stalled boundary to slowly shift south
towards the Gulf. Upper-level troughing will continue to swing east
across the southeast region Thursday into Friday while a sfc high
centered north of our forecast area shifts off to the east as well.
Because of this, moisture return flow will be limited across central
MS with best chance of afternoon convection limited to areas south
of I-20. Friday into the weekend, future guidance shows the stout
mid level ridge to our west spreading east while a mid level high
builds over the western CONUS. At the same time, sfc ridging will
begin to reestablish itself along the Gulf Coast from the east. This
will result in a warming trend with gradually increasing deep
moisture across our CWA through the weekend into early next week
with dewpoints in the low 70s. This will lead to a greater coverage
of convection and higher peak index values (greater than 105 deg)
across the forecast area. If heat trends continue to increase
heading into the weekend, we will likely introduce a heat graphic in
our HWO for this timeframe and will continue advertise this graphic
heading into the new work week. Likewise, a Heat Advisory/Excessive
Heat Warning may be needed for the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Winds are generally lessening as the remnants of Beryl exit the
area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
/86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  90  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      69  93  70  95 /  10  10   0  10
Vicksburg     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  92  74  94 /  10  20  10  40
Natchez       72  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  20
Greenville    68  90  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     68  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/CR/LP