Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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438 FXUS64 KJAN 100131 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 831 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 821 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Generally light cyclonic flow devoid of active showers continues across the area this evening as the remnants of TC Beryl drift northeast and away from the area. The forecast remains on track with temperatures slowly falling into the upper 60s north to the middle 70s south leading to a noticeably cooler and less humid overnight than we have seen in a while as drier air behind the departing cyclone is dragged south and east. Skies will be partly cloudy as we reach dawn with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s F. /86/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Rain chances will continue to diminish heading into the evening as global guidance continues to show the remnants of TC Beryl pushing northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. This will allow for a drier airmass to push across central MS leading to quiet conditions across the southeast CONUS heading into the overnight period. Cloud cover will begin to decrease across the area allowing for areas north of I- 20 to see nighttime temperatures in the upper 60s. Elsewhere, areas along and south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low 70s. Heading into Wednesday morning, the remnants of TC Beryl will be well to our northeast as a drier airmass continues to push across our area. The exception will be over our southeast where global guidance has highlighted a stalled boundary along with PWATs in excess of two inches. This leftover moisture from the Gulf will introduce some low pop chances (around 35%) during the afternoon. Afternoon highs will peak around the low 90s around this timeframe which is near normal. The combination of the dry airmass and near normal highs will allow for heat indices to reach below 105F. Wednesday Night through Tuesday... Heading into Wednesday evening quiet conditions will occur across the forecast area as the stalled boundary to slowly shift south towards the Gulf. Upper-level troughing will continue to swing east across the southeast region Thursday into Friday while a sfc high centered north of our forecast area shifts off to the east as well. Because of this, moisture return flow will be limited across central MS with best chance of afternoon convection limited to areas south of I-20. Friday into the weekend, future guidance shows the stout mid level ridge to our west spreading east while a mid level high builds over the western CONUS. At the same time, sfc ridging will begin to reestablish itself along the Gulf Coast from the east. This will result in a warming trend with gradually increasing deep moisture across our CWA through the weekend into early next week with dewpoints in the low 70s. This will lead to a greater coverage of convection and higher peak index values (greater than 105 deg) across the forecast area. If heat trends continue to increase heading into the weekend, we will likely introduce a heat graphic in our HWO for this timeframe and will continue advertise this graphic heading into the new work week. Likewise, a Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Warning may be needed for the weekend. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Winds are generally lessening as the remnants of Beryl exit the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 90 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 69 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 Vicksburg 69 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 74 92 74 94 / 10 20 10 40 Natchez 72 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 68 90 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 68 91 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/CR/LP