Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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844 FXUS64 KJAN 101712 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Mid-morning satellite imagery showed an expansive fair weather cumulus field across the forecast area. Daytime heating has resulted in some weak instability, but capping will by and large prevent convection north of the Highway 84 corridor today. The exception might be a sneak shower or two across northern Louisiana where residual moisture and weaker capping may allow for some convection during the later afternoon hours. Otherwise, a mostly dry day expected across the area the rest of today with highs in the lower 90s. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had an upper level trough over the our region that will gradually shift east through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary just south of our southeast most zones and a center of high pressure over the central Plains. This surface high will shift east through tonight as well and keep the Gulf closed. The 00Z Wednesday JAN sounding had a PWAT of 1.64 inches. The latest satellite derived total PWAT product showed drier air has filtered into our CWA and inch and a half PWATs were now limited to our southeast. Most of our CWA will remain dry through the forecast period but daytime heating of the moist airmass just south of our CWA along the stalled boundary will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon over our southern most zones. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s which is normal for this time of the year. Lower humidity will mitigate any heat stress related concerns. Tonight will be mostly clear with a near calm wind. This will allow temperatures to bottom out from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere. Lower 70s are normal lows for this time of the year. /22/ Thursday through mid next week... Seasonably dry conditions persist through the remainder of the week amid northerly flow and building surface high over the mid Mississippi Valley. As such, afternoon convection will be confined to southern areas where moisture remains ample. Enjoy this while it lasts because temperatures and moisture will be on the increase this weekend and into next week. As high pressure shifts east, 850/925 temps increase to the 22/27 range, which should result in temperatures generally in the upper 90s. Combined with increased low level moisture and dewpoint, we could be looking at more heat headlines and graphics. If trends continue, products could be hoisted. With the increasing moisture comes increasing rain and storm chances. Coverage should gradually increase and spread northward, becoming more numerous by mid next week as a tropical airmass characterized by >2 inch PWAT makes a return. /SAS/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 LIFR/IFR vsby wl be psbl at GLH until after 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 72 93 72 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 93 70 95 71 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 91 72 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 74 95 74 / 10 10 40 10 Natchez 92 72 92 72 / 10 0 10 0 Greenville 91 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 91 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/SAS20/22