749
FXUS64 KJAN 101731 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Mid-morning satellite imagery showed an expansive fair weather
cumulus field across the forecast area. Daytime heating has
resulted in some weak instability, but capping will by and large
prevent convection north of the Highway 84 corridor today. The
exception might be a sneak shower or two across northern Louisiana
where residual moisture and weaker capping may allow for some
convection during the later afternoon hours. Otherwise, a mostly
dry day expected across the area the rest of today with highs in
the lower 90s. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Today and tonight:  Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
had an upper level trough over the our region that will gradually
shift east through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a
stalled frontal boundary just south of our southeast most zones and
a center of high pressure over the central Plains. This surface high
will shift east through tonight as well and keep the Gulf closed.
The 00Z Wednesday JAN sounding had a PWAT of 1.64 inches. The latest
satellite derived total PWAT product showed drier air has filtered
into our CWA and inch and a half PWATs were now limited to our
southeast. Most of our CWA will remain dry through the forecast
period but daytime heating of the moist airmass just south of our
CWA along the stalled boundary will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon over our
southern most zones. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the
lower 90s which is normal for this time of the year. Lower humidity
will mitigate any heat stress related concerns. Tonight will be
mostly clear with a near calm wind. This will allow temperatures to
bottom out from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere.
Lower 70s are normal lows for this time of the year. /22/

Thursday through mid next week...

Seasonably dry conditions persist through the remainder of the week
amid northerly flow and building surface high over the mid
Mississippi Valley. As such, afternoon convection will be confined
to southern areas where moisture remains ample. Enjoy this while it
lasts because temperatures and moisture will be on the increase this
weekend and into next week.

As high pressure shifts east, 850/925 temps increase to the 22/27
range, which should result in temperatures generally in the upper
90s. Combined with increased low level moisture and dewpoint, we
could be looking at more heat headlines and graphics. If trends
continue, products could be hoisted.

With the increasing moisture comes increasing rain and storm
chances. Coverage should gradually increase and spread northward,
becoming more numerous by mid next week as a tropical airmass
characterized by >2 inch PWAT makes a return. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds this afternoon will have a northerly
component between 5-10 mph. These will become calm to light and
variable tonight into early Thursday morning. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  93  72  95 /   0  10   0  20
Meridian      70  95  71  97 /   0  10   0  20
Vicksburg     72  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  95  74  97 /  10  40  10  50
Natchez       72  92  72  93 /   0  10   0  30
Greenville    70  93  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     70  95  72  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19