168
FXUS64 KJAN 110303
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1003 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Overnight tonight the overall pattern will remain unchanged from
the previous few days: Scattered cloud coverage with balmy
overnight lows in the mid to low 70s across the CWA. A large
surface high continues to maintain a strong influence over the
meteorological pattern today. The predominant challenge will be
placement and coverage of patchy fog with the aforementioned low
temperatures being unseasonably high coupled with stagnant wind
speeds overnight, expanding the area of low lying stratus along
the western periphery of our CWA, mainly running along Highway 82.
All in all a fairly straightforward and quiet night. Forecast was
generally on track and no changes were needed. /OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Today through Next Wednesday:

Drier post-frontal air mass and capping aloft are limiting convection
potential across the forecast area today. With some light wind shear
over the area, though, some of the more robust cumulus could lead to
an isolated shower or two mainly west of Interstate 55. Tomorrow,
the chances for thunderstorms will once again be confined to the
Gulf Coast, but cannot rule out chance POPs around the US Highway 84
corridor in the afternoon. We remain underneath southwesterly flow
aloft with troughing over the central part of the country, so expect
moist Gulf air to edge northward heading into the weekend. The
result will be expanded chances for mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms as well as increasing concerns for dangerous heat.
Wherever/whenever afternoon convection holds off long enough each
day Saturday through Wednesday, some portion of the forecast area
could get back into the 110+ heat index range. Still time before the
messaging will ramp up, but those with outdoor plans should keep
hydrated and aware of each afternoon`s rain chances. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours, other than some brief MVFR vsby psbl at GLH & GWO
near daybreak Thursday. Light northerly winds, generally less than
10mph, are expected the next 24 hours. Some low probs of SHRA &
iso TSRA are psbl at HBG & PIB late Thursday aftn between
18/19-23Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  93  73  95 /   0  10   0  20
Meridian      70  95  71  98 /   0  10   0  10
Vicksburg     71  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  95  74  95 /  10  40  10  40
Natchez       72  93  73  92 /   0  10   0  30
Greenville    70  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     69  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/NF/DC