316
FXUS64 KJAN 111504
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1004 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The forecast remains on track thus no major updates were made to
the forecast package. Morning surface analysis indicates a 1017mb
surface high across the ArkLaMiss region leading to dry conditions
and light northerly flow. A stalled boundary near the Gulf Coast
is poised to begin lifting north today causing isolated to
scattered pops generally across the Hwy-84 corridor. High
temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 90s with portions
of the southeast having the potential to warm a few degrees
warmer./KP/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain between mid level troughing
to the north and mid level ridging to the south. Early morning
surface analysis had a 1017mb high centered over northern
Mississippi and a stalled boundary just south of our southeast most
zones. Together these features will allow temperatures to top out a
degree or two warmer than on Wednesday and keep most of our CWA dry.
The exception will be in our south, generally along and south of
Highway 84 where isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible this afternoon. Some of the convection may continue
into early evening before dissipating. Temperatures this afternoon
will top out a degree or two warmer than normal and tonight bottom
out close to normal. /22/

Friday through mid next week...

Temperatures and dewpoints will gradually increase this weekend as
upper ridging and corresponding surface high build into the area.
Temps aloft will increase into the low 20s C, which should result in
surface temps in the upper 90s, with a few 100s in some spots.
Highest temperatures appear concentrated along the HWY 82, where a
drier airmass should allow for deeper mixing.  A heat advisory will
likely be needed eventually for this weekend with heat indices of
105-110.

As high pressure shifts east early next week, Gulf moisture will
creep northward. As dewpoints increase Monday-Wednesday, heat
indices increase to 110+. Excessive heat warnings will likely be
needed for portions of the area early next week, especially in the
Delta where dewpoints appear to hold in the mid 70s longer. With
greater moisture, afternoon convection chances should become more
numerous. Still, heat will likely be an issue prior to convective
initiation. This regime will likely persist through the period./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

LIFR conditions wl prevail in the se through 13Z before improving.
TSRA wl be psbl at HBG-PIB 19-23Z. Otherwise, by 14Z VFR conditions
and a light wind will prevail through the end of the TAF period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  73  96  75 /  10   0  20   0
Meridian      95  72  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
Vicksburg     94  72  96  74 /   0   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   95  74  97  75 /  20  20  40  10
Natchez       92  73  94  75 /  20  10  30  10
Greenville    93  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     94  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/SAS20/22