959
FXUS64 KJAN 120545 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Overnight we will see the same overall weather pattern that we
had last night: Calm and quiet surface conditions with some
scattered cloud coverage lingering over the CWA, being funneled in
around the high off the East that continues to be the primary
motivating factor for our weather tonight. There will be a lone
shower over Hattiesburg that will slowly dissipate over the next
hour, abating fully by 10:30PM. Stable conditions persisting
throughout the period will facilitate areas of patchy fog
along the Highway 84 corridor during the early morning hours.
Altogether it will be another calm and balmy night with very
little excitement. Forecast is generally on track and no updates
were needed. /OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Tonight through Tomorrow: Tonight will be a fair partly cloudy night
with dwindling chances for POPs along the southeastern portions of
the CWA as we progress into the night. A stalled boundary near the
Gulf Coast will continue lifting north causing isolated to scattered
pops generally along and south of the Hwy-84 corridor this afternoon
and again tomorrow afternoon. The surface high positioned over the
ArkLaMiss region and westerly flow aloft from a 500mb ridge over
Northern Mexico will keep much of the area dry tonight through
tomorrow. Low temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the
lower 70s. With the drier air in place over the region expect high
temps tomorrow to reach in the upper 90s, but due to the lack of
moisture and daytime mixing heat indices will remain below heat
product thresholds.

Friday Night through next Thursday: Increasing heat stress
conditions will be the primary concern heading into the weekend.
Afternoon global guidance continues to show upper ridging and a
corresponding sfc high building into the southeast CONUS. This will
allow for temperatures and dewpoints to gradually increase this
weekend. Gulf moisture will start to creep northward on Saturday and
Sunday with some low end pop chances (35-45%) south of I-20.
Temperatures aloft will climb into the low 20s across our forecast
area which will result in afternoon highs reaching in the upper 90s.
A few spots across the Golden Triangle could see sfc temps in the
low 100s. The highest temperatures appear concentrated for along and
north of Hwy 82 where dewpoints will peak in the low to mid 70s, and
a drier airmass will allow for deeper mixing. No changes have been
made to the heat graphic for this weekend at this  time and a
Limited Risk for heat has been maintained for all of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and most of central Mississippi.
There is a possibility that the Limited Risk could get extended
further eastward heading into Sunday in order to cover the entire
CWA due to increasing warming trends. Likewise, a Heat Advisory
will likely be needed for the western portions of our forecast
area for for this weekend with heat indices of 105-110 deg.

Heading into the new work week, the sfc high will start to shift
east towards Alabama. This will allow for rain chances to make a
brief return to the area Monday-Wednesday as Gulf moisture creeps
northward across our forecast area. The combination of sfc temps in
the upper 90s, afternoon convection, and dewpoints climbing in the
mid 70s will yield heat indices greater than 110. An Elevated Risk
for dangerous heat has been introduced in our HWO graphic for our
entire CWA for this timeframe. Expect further updates to the heat
graphic as we get closer to the new work week. Excessive Heat
Warnings will likely be needed for portions of the area early next
week, especially in the Delta where dewpoints will hold in the mid
to upper 70s. Similar conditions are expected heading into
Thursday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Other than isolated to scattered TSRA during the aftn in the se,
VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  74  97  76 /  10   0  30  10
Meridian      98  72  99  74 /  10   0  20  10
Vicksburg     95  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   97  75  97  76 /  30   0  40  10
Natchez       94  74  94  76 /  30  10  30  10
Greenville    95  73  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
Greenwood     97  73  98  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/CR/22