747
FXUS64 KJAN 120901
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
401 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today and Tonight: It will be a little warmer and a little more
humid today and tonight. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP
analysis still showed our CWA between a 591dam high to our south and
an upper level trough to our north. Flow around these features were
drawing some mid and high level clouds up from our southwest. Both
of these features will shift east through the period and the mid
level high will strengthen and become more dominant over our CWA.
Early morning surface analysis still had a 1017mb ridge across our
CWA and a nearly diffuse stalled boundary across our southern zones.
The mid and high level clouds will do little to keep temperatures
from climbing up into the mid 90s at most locations. The increase in
low level moisture from the south, combined with the daytime heating
will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon nearly to the Interstate corridor. The northern half of
our CWA is expected to remain dry. Some of the convection will
linger into early evening before dissipating. Temperatures tonight
will bottom out in the lower 70s at most locations which is close to
normal. /22/

Saturday through late next week: Temperatures and dewpoints will
gradually increase this weekend as upper ridging and corresponding
surface high build into the area. Temps aloft will increase into
the low 20s C, which should result in surface temps in the upper
90s, with a few 100s in some spots. Highest temperatures appear
concentrated along the HWY 82, where a drier airmass should allow
for deeper mixing. A heat advisory will likely be needed
eventually for this weekend with heat indices of 105-110. As high
pressure shifts east early next week, Gulf moisture will creep
northward. As dewpoints increase Monday-Wednesday, heat indices
increase to 110+. Excessive heat warnings will likely be needed
for portions of the area early next week, especially in the Delta
where dewpoints appear to hold in the mid 70s longer. With greater
moisture, afternoon convection chances should become more
numerous. Still, heat will likely be an issue prior to convective
initiation. Will continue to carry limited/elevated heat messaging
in HWO for this weekend and early next week.

By late next week, strong upper ridging builds over the western
CONUS, forcing an upper trough over the eastern CONUS to dig
southward. Some this cooler, drier airmass may make it to our far
northern areas, however most of the area should remain under a SW
flow regime given the positive tilt of the trough. With moist Gulf
air sticking around late next week, heat indices may remain
elevated, especially further south. Will hold off on heat messaging
for late next week at this time, but may eventually be needed
should confidence increase./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Other than isolated to scattered TSRA during the aftn in the se,
VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  74  96  76 /  10  10  40  10
Meridian      98  73  99  75 /  10  10  30  10
Vicksburg     95  73  96  75 /   0   0  30  10
Hattiesburg   96  75  97  76 /  40  10  50  10
Natchez       93  74  94  75 /  30  10  40  10
Greenville    95  73  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     96  73  98  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/22