768
FXUS64 KJAN 141955
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
255 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Now through Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
persist across mainly eastern and southeast portions of the area
this afternoon and into early this evening. While a stray shower
can`t be ruled out overnight, the majority of this convection will
begin dissipating after sunset as daytime heating wanes.

Once convection dies down this evening, an overall quiet night is
expected across the area.  Mid/upper level troughing will sit in
place across the region tonight.  This will allow for some mid and
high clouds to persist over the CWA once again. With the muggy
conditions continuing, look for lows early Monday morning to fall
into the middle 70s. /19/

Monday through next Sunday:

An upper-level trough will remain over the central Gulf Coast region
tomorrow, however with the axis shifting slightly eastward, best
POPs and lowest heights will also shift a little eastward compared
to today. With that, an expanded influence of upper-level ridging to
the west should boost temps a few degrees across northeast LA,
southeast AR, and northwest MS compared to today. Expect the focus
for 105+ type heat indices to focus west of I-55, but most of the
area could get near 105 or so if rain holds off long enough into the
day. Have reconfigured the area covered by a Heat Advisory to focus
west for tomorrow afternoon.

The upper-level trough axis/weakness in the ridge never truly clears
out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week,
so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to
challenge peak heating potential. If convection should hold off any
afternoon, there is the potential for dangerous heat to be a
concern. Will continue to advertise the Elevated risk out through
the middle of this week. A shortwave deepening the trough will usher
a cold front into the region around Thursday time frame. This could
cause Wednesday afternoon to be hot just ahead of the front, with
relief and higher POPS areawide on Thursday as it moves through. The
upper-level trough is expected to consolidate and refocus over the
Central Plains over the weekend, keeping temps cooler and POPs
higher across our region. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered convection could result in a
brief degradation of flight categories to MVFR/IFR status between
now and 01Z this evening, namely at KMEI, KHBG, & KPIB. This
activity will quickly begin to dissipate after sunset this
evening. Winds this afternoon will have a westerly component
between 5-8 knots and will become calm to light this evening into
tonight. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  93  76  96 /  20  40  10  40
Meridian      73  92  74  97 /  30  50  20  60
Vicksburg     75  94  76  96 /  20  30  10  20
Hattiesburg   76  94  76  96 /  30  60  10  60
Natchez       74  94  75  95 /  10  40  10  20
Greenville    75  94  76  96 /  10  20  10  10
Greenwood     75  94  75  96 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047>049-053>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ016-025-026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/NF/19