902
FXUS64 KJAN 200202
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
902 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Overnight and into the early morning hours we will have elevated
PoPs throughout the period, highlighting possible rain showers
throughout the eastern half of CWA, with density increasing towards
the east. This increased activity is spurned by the mid level trough
and affiliated surface front stalling out across the middle of
Mississippi, oriented east-west. This front will continue to bring
much needed relief to our overnight lows, which are projected to
bottom out in the mid to upper 60s north of I-20 and mid 70s south.
A thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out overnight as some latent
energy is expected to coalesce in areas northeast and east of
Jackson. That being said: the overall environment has been
thoroughly convectively overturned over the past couple of days and
so any widespread areas of highly organized/dynamic thunderstorm can
be ruled out tonight. /OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Tonight through Sunday...Mid/upper level troughing will remain
entrenched across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through this
weekend.  This will continue to result in a frontal boundary
meandering about the forecast area during this time.  While some
slightly drier air is likely to sneak into the far northwest
portions of the Delta in the wake of this waffling boundary, a very
deeply moist airmass will continue to engulf the majority of the CWA
through the weekend, as precipitable H2O values are advertised to
hover around 2 inches.

With the addition of daytime heating each day, along with some weak
areas of ascent moving over the area, good chances for showers will
remain in the forecast each day through at least this weekend, with
a few thunderstorms also possible.  While the bulk of convection
will gradually subside in the evening when daytime heating wanes,
some scattered showers and isolated storms will linger through the
overnight hours given the overall unchanged pattern setup and
instability over the region.

A stray strong storm capable of producing gusty winds can`t be ruled
out during this time.  However, given the high moisture content over
the forecast area, heavy downpours, where high rainfall rates are
observed in a short amount of time, will be the biggest concern with
through at least Sunday.  This could result in localized flash
flooding across portions of the area, especially in low-lying and
poor drainage areas.  The best potential for such activity will
reside over area mainly southeast of the Delta region.

As far a temperatures are concerned through Sunday, with both cloud
cover and convection around, highs will be noticeably lower Saturday
and Sunday compared to previous days.  However, it`ll still feel
very muggy out as dew points generally reside in the 70s areawide.
Look for highs both Saturday and Sunday to range from the middle 80s
to around 90.  Lows tonight through Sunday night will range from the
upper 60s to middle 70s. /19/

Monday through Thursday...The long term period will remain stuck
in the ongoing stagnant pattern of rain, as tropical moisture and
multiple rounds of shortwave energy flow into the southeastern
states.

Upper level troughing will remain centered over the mid/lower MS
Valley throughout the longterm period often being influenced by the
shortwave energy of a low pressure system as it makes its way
through the mid-west. With this current weather regime pops will
continue to be scattered to numerous in coverage with some areas of
heavy precip but generally much of the same day to day throughout
the period. It is worth noting that SE Ark/MS Delta will see
lower storm coverage this weekend as PWs drop into the 1.5in range
before building back into the 2-2.5in range at the beginning of
new work week. With the consistent nature of this pattern and
areas already seeing rainfall totals upwards of 2in, a limited
flash flooding threat was introduced in the graphical HWO for a
majority of the CWA through this weekend as some areas could see
upwards of 2-4in of rain with locally higher amounts. At least for
this weekend portions of SE Ark/MS Delta with lower PW values
show indications that they will be left out of the higher bands of
rain thus were excluded from the limited threat. As for heat,
consistent cloud cover and rain chances will keep the heat in
check, keeping max temps well below climo for this time of the
year. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mostly VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this evening as
scattered showers/storms continue over the area. Expect VFR
conditions to continue outside of thunderstorm activity through
the evening hours. Stratus will develop overnight and expect most
sites to become MVFR/IFR very early on Saturday./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  71  88  72 /  80  50  50  50
Meridian      84  69  89  71 /  90  70  70  60
Vicksburg     85  71  89  72 /  80  30  20  30
Hattiesburg   86  72  90  73 /  90  70  80  50
Natchez       81  70  88  72 /  50  30  30  40
Greenville    82  69  88  71 /  10  10  10  10
Greenwood     82  69  88  71 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/LP/LP