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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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662 FXUS64 KJAN 200707 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Overnight and into the early morning hours we will have elevated PoPs throughout the period, highlighting possible rain showers throughout the eastern half of CWA, with density increasing towards the east. This increased activity is spurned by the mid level trough and affiliated surface front stalling out across the middle of Mississippi, oriented east-west. This front will continue to bring much needed relief to our overnight lows, which are projected to bottom out in the mid to upper 60s north of I-20 and mid 70s south. A thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out overnight as some latent energy is expected to coalesce in areas northeast and east of Jackson. That being said: the overall environment has been thoroughly convectively overturned over the past couple of days and so any widespread areas of highly organized/dynamic thunderstorm can be ruled out tonight. /OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Tonight through Sunday...Mid/upper level troughing will remain entrenched across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through this weekend. This will continue to result in a frontal boundary meandering about the forecast area during this time. While some slightly drier air is likely to sneak into the far northwest portions of the Delta in the wake of this waffling boundary, a very deeply moist airmass will continue to engulf the majority of the CWA through the weekend, as precipitable H2O values are advertised to hover around 2 inches. With the addition of daytime heating each day, along with some weak areas of ascent moving over the area, good chances for showers will remain in the forecast each day through at least this weekend, with a few thunderstorms also possible. While the bulk of convection will gradually subside in the evening when daytime heating wanes, some scattered showers and isolated storms will linger through the overnight hours given the overall unchanged pattern setup and instability over the region. A stray strong storm capable of producing gusty winds can`t be ruled out during this time. However, given the high moisture content over the forecast area, heavy downpours, where high rainfall rates are observed in a short amount of time, will be the biggest concern with through at least Sunday. This could result in localized flash flooding across portions of the area, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. The best potential for such activity will reside over area mainly southeast of the Delta region. As far a temperatures are concerned through Sunday, with both cloud cover and convection around, highs will be noticeably lower Saturday and Sunday compared to previous days. However, it`ll still feel very muggy out as dew points generally reside in the 70s areawide. Look for highs both Saturday and Sunday to range from the middle 80s to around 90. Lows tonight through Sunday night will range from the upper 60s to middle 70s. /19/ Monday through Thursday...The long term period will remain stuck in the ongoing stagnant pattern of rain, as tropical moisture and multiple rounds of shortwave energy flow into the southeastern states. Upper level troughing will remain centered over the mid/lower MS Valley throughout the longterm period often being influenced by the shortwave energy of a low pressure system as it makes its way through the mid-west. With this current weather regime pops will continue to be scattered to numerous in coverage with some areas of heavy precip but generally much of the same day to day throughout the period. It is worth noting that SE Ark/MS Delta will see lower storm coverage this weekend as PWs drop into the 1.5in range before building back into the 2-2.5in range at the beginning of new work week. With the consistent nature of this pattern and areas already seeing rainfall totals upwards of 2in, a limited flash flooding threat was introduced in the graphical HWO for a majority of the CWA through this weekend as some areas could see upwards of 2-4in of rain with locally higher amounts. At least for this weekend portions of SE Ark/MS Delta with lower PW values show indications that they will be left out of the higher bands of rain thus were excluded from the limited threat. As for heat, consistent cloud cover and rain chances will keep the heat in check, keeping max temps well below climo for this time of the year. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Deep moisture across the region is fueling ongoing scattered SHRA, near JAN & HKS & mainly focused at PIB & HEZ through 20/11Z & at MEI between 20/09-14Z. A rumble of TS is psbl through mid- morning. Low stratus & patchy BR are developing & ceilings will only worsen between 20/08Z-16Z this morning. MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected & as low as LIFR at PIB & HEZ. The best chance for scattered-numerous SHRA & TSRA will be 20/19Z Saturday to 21/01Z Sunday. Aftn SHRA & TSRA will wind down by 21/02-03Z. Winds will be light & variable, below 10mph, through the TAF period. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 72 88 71 / 50 50 80 40 Meridian 89 71 88 69 / 70 60 90 50 Vicksburg 89 72 89 72 / 20 30 60 40 Hattiesburg 90 73 89 72 / 80 50 90 40 Natchez 88 72 87 71 / 30 40 70 40 Greenville 88 71 89 71 / 10 10 30 30 Greenwood 88 71 89 71 / 20 20 50 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/KP/DC