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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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401 FXUS64 KJAN 151958 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Through Tonight: Thunderstorms in northeast Mississippi around the Louisville- Columbus area are currently the only focus for rain chances in our forecast area this afternoon. Guidance favors anywhere in eastern Mississippi through the early evening for additional rain chances, and a disturbed field of cumulus clouds could yield an additional few clusters or showers or storms. Brief isolated showers have even appeared around northeast LA at times so far this afternoon, so will keep the current forecast in place. Early onset of convection and cloud development today appears to have limited peak heating potential for our southwestern parishes and counties, with most obs sites south of I-20 in the 93 over 73 range giving heat indices around 103-105. Delta sites are the warmest with higher dew points pushing heat indices closer to 108-110. With lift and southwesterly flow aloft associated with trough axis overhead, rain chances will linger into the evening. Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight with lows in the mid 70s typical of mid July. /NF/ Tuesday through early next week: Dangerous heat stress will be the primary hazard to start off the extended period as global guidance shows a broad high pressure system stretching across the Southern Plains region. At the same time, a 591dam upper trough will continue to extend southwards in the Ozarks/TN River Valley towards the TN/GA state line. This will result in increasing low-level heights across the southeast CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday as a low level ridge will start to build into the region ahead of the next system. Southwesterly flow from the Gulf Coast will unfortunately promote dangerous heat stress across our forecast area around this timeframe. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 90s across central MS, with a few spots across the Delta potentially reaching 100 degrees. The combination of southwesterly flow along with high afternoon temperatures will yield heat indices anywhere between 105-115 deg range. We went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for the entire forecast area for Tuesday from 10 AM - 8 PM Tuesday evening. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Wednesday given the increased warming trends. Given the heat indices for Wednesday, a couple of areas across the Delta and across south and west MS will likely get upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning. No changes have been made to the heat graphic for tomorrow, especially for areas where the Heat Advisory is in effect. Could see some updates to the heat graphic for Wednesday. Precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from isolated to scattered especially in E/SE portions of MS. Relief from the heat is on the way heading into Thursday as the ridge will break down allowing for a broad positively tilted trough axis to dip southward across the ArkLaMiss region. This will help increase storm chances across the CWA and introduce more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATs will be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches at times. Because of this, some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall at times which could lead to some localized flash flooding in a couple of areas. Forecast confidence at this point is low given the uncertainty regarding the placement of the trough axis. We will continue to monitor flash flooding potential for this weekend. Later on Sunday, future guidance hints at low level ridging building in from the Southeast US. This will allow for afternoon temperatures to increase into the 90s heading into the new work week, with heat indices climbing up to 105 degrees for areas in the southern portions of our forecast area. With the frontal boundary hanging up along the Gulf Coast, scattered to numerous rain/storm chances will be possible through the new work week. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Greatest chances for impacts from TSRA will be near KGTR through around 20-21Z today. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA are possible elsewhere, but thunder impacts were too low to mention. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 97 76 96 / 20 30 10 50 Meridian 73 97 74 98 / 20 40 10 60 Vicksburg 76 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 20 Hattiesburg 76 96 77 96 / 30 50 10 60 Natchez 75 95 75 95 / 10 20 0 30 Greenville 76 97 77 97 / 10 0 0 20 Greenwood 76 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027- 034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ NF/CR/NF