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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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163 FXUS64 KJAN 161949 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Not much change has been made to the forecast for the short term period. Rain chances will begin to dwindle down across east and southeast MS later in the overnight period as global guidance continues to highlight an upper level ridge over the southeast CONUS. Sky conditions will be generally clear across our CWA along with a few mid-high clouds. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog potential south of Hwy 84 later in the overnight period. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 70s across the forecast area. Later on Wednesday, the aforementioned ridge will maximize across the southeast CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to extend southward into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain chances will increase slightly, with slightly higher rain chances (roughly 35-50%) along and east of I-55. Unfortunately, dangerous heat will once again be primary focus for tomorrow as increased heights and westerly flow will help afternoon highs climb in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the triple digits across the forecast area. Heat indices above 110 degrees could be possible in a few areas. We went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for our entire area for tomorrow. A few areas across the Delta could get upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday given the latest trends. No changes have been made to the heat graphic and a "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat has been maintained especially where the Heat Advisory is in effect. /CR/ Wednesday night through Tuesday... The long term period will begin with an expiring heat advisory that will last through the first few hours of the period. A 590 dam upper level trough pushing down from the Mid-Ms Valley will be the primary source of weather as it continues its track towards the area signaling a change to current weather regime were in. By Thursday the surface ridge will break down, ahead of the approaching trough, allowing for and increase in storm coverage and a decrease in temps through the weekend. Consistent chances for scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible into the next workweek. Precip and increased sky cover will provides some much needed relief to heat, high temps will be more seasonable dipping into the mid We can expect to see PWATs in excess of 2.5in at times this weekend especially along the coast as we see strong southwesterly flow. Flash flooding is looking increasingly possible but will continue to be monitored for this weekend. Heading into next week rain chances will continue to be scattered to numerous as the front will stall out over the region meandering from northern Ms to the Gulf Coast. Additionally, at the end of the period high temps look primed for a return to the low to mid 90s as a surface ridge begins to build back into the area from the southeast. Heat products also look increasingly possible for the beginning of the week as heat indices make their return to near 105 degrees areawide. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR ceilings and conditions will prevail across all TAF sites to start off the period. SHRA and -TSRA will be possible across east and southeast MS starting around 20Z Tuesday and will last through 02Z Wednesday, which could lead to a few TAF sites (mainly MEI) with sub-VFR conditions. Rain chances will begin to diminish by 02Z Wednesday with quiet conditions expected through the overnight period. Scattered SHRA and TS with brief wind gusts will be possible 18Z Wednesday especially across east and southeast MS. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 95 75 92 / 10 40 40 90 Meridian 74 97 73 93 / 30 60 50 90 Vicksburg 76 96 75 90 / 10 20 40 80 Hattiesburg 76 97 76 93 / 30 60 20 100 Natchez 75 94 75 90 / 10 30 30 80 Greenville 77 96 73 87 / 0 30 60 70 Greenwood 76 96 73 88 / 10 30 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/KP/CR