267
FXUS64 KJAN 202043
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
343 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...An upper trough remains situated across
the central part of the country with the eastern periphery serving
to reduce upper heights in our area. This combined with a remnant
cold frontal boundary is supporting scattered showers and storms
that again will likely linger into tonight. With a continued lack
of adequate deep layer shear, organized severe storms are not
expected. With substantial deep layer moisture (PW AOA 2") and
relatively light flow, storms could produce bouts of locally heavy
rain of 1-3" in short period of time.

A similar pattern continues into tomorrow with scattered afternoon
into overnight storms carrying similar hazards, mostly for localized
heavy rains. For this reason, localized flash flooding will be
possible tonight as well as into tomorrow, where the most favored
areas for brief, mostly urban flooding will be general along and
southeast of the Natchez Trace.

Lows tonight fall into the lower 70s F with highs tomorrow not
dissimilar from what we`ve seen today, topping out in the upper 80s
F to near 90 F areawide. Patchy fog and low clouds will be possible,
particularly around dawn. /86/

Sunday night through Saturday. Rainy conditions continue through
the extended with showers and thunderstorms expected nearly
everyday. Cloudy skies and rain will keep afternoon temperatures a
little cooler, but a steady flow of moisture will maintain muggy
conditions.

Ridging to the east and west will keep deep moisture flowing into
the region. Southwesterly to southerly winds are  bringing in
Pacific and Gulf moisture. The environment across the region is more
tropical like, where PW values were around 2 inches. Scattered to
numerous showers will continue where periods of heavy rain are
likely. Radar estimates this morning showed 3-4 inches of rain fell
over Lauderdale, Kemper and a portion of northern Clarke mostly
overnight. Several inches of rain fell late last week with total
estimates showing values near 7 inches in a few locations.

Heavy downpours, especially in thunderstorms will be more efficient
and may produce rounds of rain where several inches may fall.
Training storms along with heavy rain may lead to localized
flooding. A limited risk area for flash flooding will continue for
the southeastern zones through the weekend. The entire area may need
to be included by mid week.

Models show a nearly stalled/slow moving boundary settled generally
along the Natchez Trace by tomorrow night. Several waves are
expected to develop and move along the boundary over the next few
days providing support for convection. The boundary/trough axis
hangs over the area going into next weekend. A ridge builds into the
Gulf and the boundary slowly moves north Friday/Saturday. Warm
advection continues with the Bermuda well planted and
showers/thunderstorms remain likely through next weekend.

Cloudy skies and rain will keep afternoon temperatures down a couple
degrees, but highs for much of the area will be near 90. Overnight
lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. No big changes expected for
the next 7 days. The area will continue to be monitored for flash
flood potential.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

CIG/VSBY has improved this morning and most locations will
prevail VFR with occasional CIG to MVFR into early afternoon.
A few showers over southern sites will expand in coverage through
06Z with some risk for SHRA/TSRA maximized during the afternoon
and early evening. Cloud decks lower tonight and some fog could
also develop with MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIG conditions possible across the
area between 10Z and 14Z. Winds will be generally light through
the period, northerly for GLH/GWO and generally out of the south
and west elsewhere. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  72  85 /  20  60  40  80
Meridian      71  89  70  85 /  50  70  50  90
Vicksburg     71  91  72  87 /  10  50  40  70
Hattiesburg   73  89  72  88 /  70  90  50  90
Natchez       72  88  72  86 /  20  70  50  80
Greenville    69  90  72  87 /   0  10  20  50
Greenwood     70  91  71  87 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/07/