749
FXUS64 KJAN 161122 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Through tonight: For the near term, we will remain locked in a
familiar pattern from the past few days. A narrow shortwave
mid/upper trough axis, evident in current WV imagery, still
extends from SW to NE over the area and is beginning to cut off in
the upper levels around east TX/west LA. Ahead of these features,
there continues to be a seasonably moist airmass over much of the
area. We are beginning the morning with festering isolated
showers and TS across parts of central and east MS which are being
instigated by this feature. However, once again the bulk of
convection today will hold off until maximum heating this
afternoon, lingering into the early evening as instability slowly
wanes. As has been seen in recent days, there will be some
potential for a stronger storm or two given the abundance of
instability, but the threat is limited enough to not highlight
with a formal severe weather outlook at this time. Meanwhile, heat
stress continues to be the primary concern, with heat indices
likely to rise into the 105-110F range again today. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the entire area. /DL/

Wednesday through next Tuesday...

Wednesday will spark the beginning of a pattern change across the
region, with a low level ridge maximizing across the southeast
CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to extend southwards into
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Increased heights and
westerly flow will prompt dangerous heat conditions across the
region, with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the lower to
middle 70s on Wednesday. heat indices are expected to climb into
the triple digits, with some areas having the potential to exceed
110 degreesF. Expect a Heat Advisory as an "Elevated" Risk for
dangerous heat stress is being advertised. By Thursday, the ridge
will break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bring increased
potentials for scattered to numerous showers and storms, along
with more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATS will
be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5
inches at times. The potential for flash flooding will continue to
be monitored for this weekend.

By Sunday into the new work week, low level ridging will begin to
build in from the southeast, which will allow temperatures to
begin to increase into the work week. Highs will range in the
lower to middle 90s through Monday, with heat indices reaching up
to 105 for areas in the southern portions of the CWA. Rain chances
will remain scattered to numerous, as a frontal boundary hangs up
near the Gulf Coast and looks to keep a fairly moist, tropical-
like layer across the south through Tuesday. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning. Brief fog
cannot be ruled out through shortly after sunrise, but
probabilities are too low at any site to include in the TAF. The
same will be possible around daybreak Wed morning. Scattered SHRA
and TS with brief wind gusts are possible this afternoon into
early evening, diminishing overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  76  97  75 /  30  10  50  40
Meridian      97  74  97  73 /  40  20  60  40
Vicksburg     96  76  97  74 /  10  10  20  30
Hattiesburg   97  76  97  76 /  50  30  60  20
Natchez       95  75  95  75 /  20  10  30  20
Greenville    97  77  97  73 /   0   0  30  50
Greenwood     97  76  97  73 /  20   0  40  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/AJ