893
FXUS64 KJAN 170249
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Overnight and into the early morning hours the meteorological
condition will continue to be the relatively calm and quiet
nights we`ve had over the past couple of nights. The dominating
feature for our area will be broad, entrenched upper level ridging
that extends down to the surface. Overnight lows will remain
unseasonably warm, especially throughout the MS Delta, ranging
into the high 70s. There is some lingering cloud coverage
expected to make its way through the CWA tonight. Remnants from
significant convective activity to our south will continue to
advect in bringing few to scattered mid level decks that will thin
out as sunrise approaches. In summary, another hot and humid
night. The forecast continues to remain on track with only minimal
changes made, principally backing off on precip chances throughout
the CWA as most areas of concern have since moved out of the
region. /OAJ/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Not much change has been made to the forecast for the short term
period. Rain chances will begin to dwindle down across east and
southeast MS later in the overnight period as global guidance
continues to highlight an upper level ridge over the southeast
CONUS. Sky conditions will be generally clear across our CWA along
with a few mid-high clouds. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog
potential south of Hwy 84 later in the overnight period. Nighttime
temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 70s across the forecast
area. Later on Wednesday, the aforementioned ridge will maximize
across the southeast CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to
extend southward into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain
chances will increase slightly, with slightly higher rain chances
(roughly 35-50%) along and east of I-55.

Unfortunately, dangerous heat will once again be primary focus for
tomorrow as increased heights and westerly flow will help afternoon
highs climb in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices in the triple
digits across the forecast area. Heat indices above 110 degrees could
be possible in a few areas. We went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory
for our entire area for tomorrow. A few areas across the Delta could
get upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday given the
latest trends. No changes have been made to the heat graphic and a
"Elevated" risk for dangerous heat has been maintained especially
where the Heat Advisory is in effect. /CR/

Wednesday night through Tuesday...

The long term period will begin with an expiring heat advisory that
will last through the first few hours of the period.

A 590 dam upper level trough pushing down from the Mid-Ms Valley will
be the primary source of weather as it continues its track towards
the area signaling a change to current weather regime were in. By
Thursday the surface ridge will break down, ahead of the approaching
trough, allowing for and increase in storm coverage and a decrease
in temps through the weekend. Consistent chances for scattered to
numerous showers and storms will be possible into the next workweek.
Precip and increased sky cover will provides some much needed relief
to heat, high temps will be more seasonable dipping into the mid We
can expect to see PWATs in excess of 2.5in at times this weekend
especially along the coast as we see strong southwesterly flow.
Flash flooding is looking increasingly possible but will continue to
be monitored for this weekend.

Heading into next week rain chances will continue to be scattered to
numerous as the front will stall out over the region meandering from
northern Ms to the Gulf Coast. Additionally, at the end of the
period high temps look primed for a return to the low to mid 90s as
a surface ridge begins to build back into the area from the
southeast. Heat products also look increasingly possible for the
beginning of the week as heat indices make their return to near 105
degrees areawide. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR ceilings and conditions will prevail across all TAF sites to
start off the period. SHRA and -TSRA will be possible across east
and southeast MS starting around 20Z Tuesday and will last through
02Z Wednesday, which could lead to a few TAF sites (mainly MEI) with
sub-VFR conditions. Rain chances will begin to diminish by 02Z
Wednesday with quiet conditions expected through the overnight
period. Scattered SHRA and TS with brief wind gusts will be possible
18Z Wednesday especially across east and southeast MS. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  76  95  75 /  20  10  40  40
Meridian      97  74  97  73 /  30  10  60  50
Vicksburg     96  76  96  75 /  10   0  20  40
Hattiesburg   97  76  97  76 /  30  10  60  20
Natchez       95  75  94  75 /  20  10  30  30
Greenville    97  77  96  73 /   0   0  30  60
Greenwood     97  76  96  73 /  10   0  30  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

OAJ/KP/KP