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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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743 FXUS64 KJAN 111728 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The forecast remains on track thus no major updates were made to the forecast package. Morning surface analysis indicates a 1017mb surface high across the ArkLaMiss region leading to dry conditions and light northerly flow. A stalled boundary near the Gulf Coast is poised to begin lifting north today causing isolated to scattered pops generally across the Hwy-84 corridor. High temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 90s with portions of the southeast having the potential to warm a few degrees warmer./KP/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain between mid level troughing to the north and mid level ridging to the south. Early morning surface analysis had a 1017mb high centered over northern Mississippi and a stalled boundary just south of our southeast most zones. Together these features will allow temperatures to top out a degree or two warmer than on Wednesday and keep most of our CWA dry. The exception will be in our south, generally along and south of Highway 84 where isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Some of the convection may continue into early evening before dissipating. Temperatures this afternoon will top out a degree or two warmer than normal and tonight bottom out close to normal. /22/ Friday through mid next week... Temperatures and dewpoints will gradually increase this weekend as upper ridging and corresponding surface high build into the area. Temps aloft will increase into the low 20s C, which should result in surface temps in the upper 90s, with a few 100s in some spots. Highest temperatures appear concentrated along the HWY 82, where a drier airmass should allow for deeper mixing. A heat advisory will likely be needed eventually for this weekend with heat indices of 105-110. As high pressure shifts east early next week, Gulf moisture will creep northward. As dewpoints increase Monday-Wednesday, heat indices increase to 110+. Excessive heat warnings will likely be needed for portions of the area early next week, especially in the Delta where dewpoints appear to hold in the mid 70s longer. With greater moisture, afternoon convection chances should become more numerous. Still, heat will likely be an issue prior to convective initiation. This regime will likely persist through the period./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR condition will prevail through the TAF period at all sites. Expect a light northerly wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 96 75 97 / 0 20 0 30 Meridian 70 98 73 99 / 0 10 0 30 Vicksburg 72 96 74 95 / 0 10 0 20 Hattiesburg 74 97 75 97 / 20 40 10 40 Natchez 73 94 75 94 / 0 30 10 30 Greenville 71 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 72 97 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/SAS20/22