Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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444 FXUS64 KJAN 040248 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 948 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The last of today`s convection was noted on local radars dissipating over the southwest. This activity should end within the next hour and no additional convection is expected tonight. There were numerous areas rain cooled this evening but morning lows still look on track. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Today through Next Wednesday: Currently, convection is ramping up as scattered showers and storms are being observed all around the CWA. This pop-up convection will have very weak deep layer flow and will allow for the possibility for any storms to move very slow potentially causing locally high rainfall amounts.We will continue to see generally scattered storm coverage with the greatest chances across the SE half. While nothing popping up has warranted any severe products, instability today is in excess of 4000J/kg of SBCAPE and with temps reaching into the upper 90s, a storm or two has the possibility to be strong with the main threat being strong wind gusts. For heat impacts, the "Excessive Heat Warning" will remain in effect for most areas today with a "Heat Advisory" in effect elsewhere. High temperatures will be dangerously hot with temps climbing into the mid to upper 90s mixed with the high humidity will lead to heat indices to range from 110-120 degrees. Synoptically we will continue to see high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period. We can expect the surface ridge to continue to allow an influx of deep moisture into the area through next week. This will result in increased humidity and chances for showers and storms throughout each afternoon. Storm coverage will be be greatest in the southeast gradually decreasing to the northwest, especially into this weekend as some drier air filters in behind the frontal boundary dropping into Northern MS. While this will be a wet period, it will also be a hot one. High temperatures each day will remain in the mid-high 90s and heat indices in excess of 110 degrees leading dangerous heat stress conditions through at least the July 4th holiday. Thus there will be need for heat products areawide throughout the week with much of the area under an "Excessive Heat Warning" Thursday. Areas not under an "Excessive Heat Warning" will continue to be included in a "Heat Advisory." By Friday the rain will have provided enough relief to lower high temps slightly with only a "Heat Advisory" likely for some areas of northwest MS and southeast AR. Due to this potential, a "Significant" expanded Thursday in the HWO graphics for potential heat prior to convection, while "Elevated" southeast of the Natchez Trace for Thursday and Northwest of the Trace Friday. By this weekend the stalled boundary will bring greater chances for areawide rainfall each day through Wednesday. This will likely us a break from most heat stress and heat related products from the weekend into early next week as high temps will dip into the lower 90s to upper 80s. Anomalous moisture and southwesterly flow could bring some localized heavy rain potential during portions of the weekend into early next week but confidence is too low to introduce in the HWO graphics at this time./KP/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 TSRA wl affect HEZ until after 02Z. SHRA/TSRA will come in vcty of cntrl MS TAFs as well. Away from TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail until after 12Z. After 12Z MVFR cigs wl be psbl cntrl and south. These conditions wl improve by 16Z and a greater coverage of aftn TSRA wl move across the area with the greatest coverage expected in the se. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 93 78 91 / 10 60 10 80 Meridian 75 94 75 93 / 10 70 10 80 Vicksburg 78 95 78 92 / 10 40 10 70 Hattiesburg 77 94 78 94 / 10 80 10 70 Natchez 76 93 77 92 / 20 50 10 60 Greenville 79 96 79 93 / 0 30 20 70 Greenwood 78 96 78 92 / 10 40 20 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019-025>030-032-034>037-040>043-047-048-053-054-059- 060. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ031-033-038- 039-044>046-049>052-055>058-061>066-072>074. LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075. && $$ /KP/22