527
FXUS64 KJAN 150249
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Rest of tonight...

Convection slower to wane this evening than the previous few
nights. Regional upper air soundings this evening indicate deeper
moisture near 2 inch precitable water (PWs), with more vigorous &
longer lasting convection for areas southeast of the Natchez
Trace corridor, especially into the Pine Belt along the I-59 to
Hwy 98 corridors. Evening water vapor/RAP/upper air analysis
indicate stagnant ridge over the Four Corners, subtropical ridge
extending across the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico &
deepening shortwave trough caught in between over the Gulf Coast
states. This ascent has aided in scattered to numerous
thunderstorm activity across a large portion of the area this
afternoon to evening. In addition, some light northerly upwind
propagation helped fuel some heavier rain potential in the Hwy 98
corridor, with microburst/downdraft potential aiding in some more
vigorous, persistent updrafts. Expect thunderstorms to slowly
wane, but should dissipate before midnight. Boundary layer & deep
moisture will keep seasonably warm lows in the low-mid 70s. Some
clouds will persist, with some patchy fog possible south of
Interstate 20, especially in areas that received rain, with best
potential likely in the Pine Belt. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Now through Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
persist across mainly eastern and southeast portions of the area
this afternoon and into early this evening. While a stray shower
can`t be ruled out overnight, the majority of this convection will
begin dissipating after sunset as daytime heating wanes.

Once convection dies down this evening, an overall quiet night is
expected across the area.  Mid/upper level troughing will sit in
place across the region tonight.  This will allow for some mid and
high clouds to persist over the CWA once again. With the muggy
conditions continuing, look for lows early Monday morning to fall
into the middle 70s. /19/

Monday through next Sunday:

An upper-level trough will remain over the central Gulf Coast region
tomorrow, however with the axis shifting slightly eastward, best
POPs and lowest heights will also shift a little eastward compared
to today. With that, an expanded influence of upper-level ridging to
the west should boost temps a few degrees across northeast LA,
southeast AR, and northwest MS compared to today. Expect the focus
for 105+ type heat indices to focus west of I-55, but most of the
area could get near 105 or so if rain holds off long enough into the
day. Have reconfigured the area covered by a Heat Advisory to focus
west for tomorrow afternoon.

The upper-level trough axis/weakness in the ridge never truly clears
out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week,
so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to
challenge peak heating potential. If convection should hold off any
afternoon, there is the potential for dangerous heat to be a
concern. Will continue to advertise the Elevated risk out through
the middle of this week. A shortwave deepening the trough will usher
a cold front into the region around Thursday time frame. This could
cause Wednesday afternoon to be hot just ahead of the front, with
relief and higher POPS areawide on Thursday as it moves through. The
upper-level trough is expected to consolidate and refocus over the
Central Plains over the weekend, keeping temps cooler and POPs
higher across our region. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered SHRA & TSRA are ongoing near central, eastern &
southeastern TAF sites of JAN, HKS, PIB & HBG. Chances of
convection will persist through 15/01-02Z Monday. GTR & MEI are
more stabilized from earlier storms & should remain mostly quiet
other than SHRA in VC. Patchy fog/BR can`t be ruled out, but
confidence remains too low to introduce in this TAF cycle, based
on persistence forecast & limited light rain near TAF sites. Low
probs of light SHRA & isolated TSRA are again psbl Monday at east-
central-southern sites of GTR, JAN, HKS, MEI, HEZ, with more
confidence of SHRA & TSRA at HBG & PIB, mainly late Monday aftn
between 15/19-23Z. Light westerly/variable winds, less than 10mph,
are expected through the next 24 hours. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  93  76  96 /  10  40  10  40
Meridian      73  92  74  97 /  20  50  20  60
Vicksburg     75  94  76  96 /  10  30  10  20
Hattiesburg   74  94  76  96 /  30  60  10  60
Natchez       74  94  75  95 /  10  40  10  20
Greenville    74  94  76  96 /  10  20  10  10
Greenwood     74  94  75  96 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/NF/DC