315
FXUS64 KJAN 151131 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Through tonight: A shortwave trough axis will continue to extend
from the Ohio Valley through the ArkLaTex today, with plentiful
deep layer moisture ahead of it across much of our area. This has
helped instigate some stray storms early the morning over north
central MS. However, most convection will hold off until this
afternoon when more plentiful instability is available. Similar to
this past weekend, storms may persist into the early evening
before finally diminishing. And based on the position of the upper
trough, rain chances will be higher the farther south and east
you go in the area, with the lowest rain chances in southeast AR
and the ArkLaMiss Delta where moisture will be somewhat less. As
we`ve seen over the past couple days, we can`t rule out a brief
stronger storm or two simply owing to strong summer daytime
instability. It will be warm and humid again today, with heat
indices again in the triple digits areawide. We have expanded the
Heat Advisory for today to include parts of east and southeast
MS. HIs may be more marginal in northeast MS, at least today.
Still, even there it will be muggy and unpleasant away from any
relief from rain. /DL/

Tuesday through next Monday...

The period begins with a broad high pressure stretching across
the Southern Plains region, while an upper trough begins to extend
southwards into the Ozarks/TN River Valley. Low level heights
will continue to maximize across the southeast Tuesday through
Wednesday as a low level ridge builds into the region ahead of the
next system. Westerly flow will promote dangerous heat potential
through mid-week as temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices
ranging 105-115 degrees persist. Precipitation on Tuesday and
Wednesday will range from isolated to scattered, mainly in the
E/SE portions of MS. By Thursday, the ridge will break down as a
broad trough dips southwards, bring increased potentials for
scattered to numerous showers and storms, along with more
seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATS will be
abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches
at times. The potential for flash flooding will continue to be
monitored for this weekend.

By Sunday, low level ridging will begin to build in from the
southeast, which will allow temperatures to begin to increase into
the work week. Hills will range in the lower to middle 90s
through Monday, with heat indices reaching up to 105 for areas in
the southern portions of the CWA. Rain chances will remain
scattered to numerous, as a frontal boundary hangs up near the
Gulf Coast. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning. Brief fog
cannot be ruled out through shortly after sunrise, but is not
probable enough to mention in the TAF. The same will be possible
around daybreak Tuesday morning. Scattered SHRA and TS with brief
wind gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening,
diminishing overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period with light wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  75  96  76 /  40  10  40  10
Meridian      95  74  97  75 /  50  20  60  10
Vicksburg     95  75  97  76 /  20  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   96  76  96  77 /  50  20  50  10
Natchez       94  75  95  75 /  30  20  10   0
Greenville    95  76  97  78 /  20  10  10   0
Greenwood     95  76  97  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/AJ