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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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260 FXUS64 KJAN 151858 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 158 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1046 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Taking a look around the region, temps are warming quickly. Most obs sites are reporting upper 80s with a few at 90 already. The 12Z KJAN sounding showed a moist profile with some enhanced lapse rates courtesy of the trough aloft and warm surface temps. PWATs near 2.0 inches are supportive of locally heavy rainfall, and storm motions will still be relatively slow - around 15 mph. Widespread flash flooding is not expected, but localized flooding can`t be ruled out under these circumstances at this time of year. Sounding also showed an easily achievable convective temp of 89 degrees, and current cumulus field popping up on satellite imagery supports this early start to convective potential today. As the upper-level trough axis shifts slightly eastward today, this will allow more heating potential in the west and have max temps over northeast LA and southeast AR back in the mid to upper 90s today. Given the developing CU field already in central/eastern MS, will retain the current Heat Advisory configuration for this afternoon. A brief period of heat index near 105 can`t be ruled out in northeast MS, but afternoon temps in the 92-93 range there would require dew points to hang in the 75-76 range and no precip to sustain a 105 heat index. Lastly, modifying the morning sounding yielded a 7 on the microburst composite parameter, suggesting the enhanced lapse rates and moist profile will boost the chance for a few microbursts around the area this afternoon. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Through tonight: A shortwave trough axis will continue to extend from the Ohio Valley through the ArkLaTex today, with plentiful deep layer moisture ahead of it across much of our area. This has helped instigate some stray storms early the morning over north central MS. However, most convection will hold off until this afternoon when more plentiful instability is available. Similar to this past weekend, storms may persist into the early evening before finally diminishing. And based on the position of the upper trough, rain chances will be higher the farther south and east you go in the area, with the lowest rain chances in southeast AR and the ArkLaMiss Delta where moisture will be somewhat less. As we`ve seen over the past couple days, we can`t rule out a brief stronger storm or two simply owing to strong summer daytime instability. It will be warm and humid again today, with heat indices again in the triple digits areawide. We have expanded the Heat Advisory for today to include parts of east and southeast MS. HIs may be more marginal in northeast MS, at least today. Still, even there it will be muggy and unpleasant away from any relief from rain. /DL/ Tuesday through next Monday... The period begins with a broad high pressure stretching across the Southern Plains region, while an upper trough begins to extend southwards into the Ozarks/TN River Valley. Low level heights will continue to maximize across the southeast Tuesday through Wednesday as a low level ridge builds into the region ahead of the next system. Westerly flow will promote dangerous heat potential through mid-week as temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices ranging 105-115 degrees persist. Precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from isolated to scattered, mainly in the E/SE portions of MS. By Thursday, the ridge will break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bring increased potentials for scattered to numerous showers and storms, along with more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATS will be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches at times. The potential for flash flooding will continue to be monitored for this weekend. By Sunday, low level ridging will begin to build in from the southeast, which will allow temperatures to begin to increase into the work week. Hills will range in the lower to middle 90s through Monday, with heat indices reaching up to 105 for areas in the southern portions of the CWA. Rain chances will remain scattered to numerous, as a frontal boundary hangs up near the Gulf Coast. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Greatest chances for impacts from TSRA will be near KGTR through around 20-21Z today. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA are possible elsewhere, but thunder impacts were too low to mention. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 95 76 97 76 / 30 20 30 10 Meridian 95 73 97 75 / 40 20 40 10 Vicksburg 95 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 Hattiesburg 96 76 97 77 / 40 30 50 10 Natchez 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 0 Greenville 95 76 97 78 / 10 10 0 0 Greenwood 95 76 97 77 / 20 10 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027- 034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DL/AJ/NF