699
FXUS63 KIWX 200956
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
556 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry conditions are expected through Monday afternoon. High
 temperatures will range from 75 to 85 degrees through the week.
 Lows will be in the 60s.

-There are daily chances for showers and thunderstorms next
 week, with the best potential Wednesday into Thursday. Severe
 weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

High pressure keeps us dry with partly to mostly clear skies through
Monday afternoon, when a deepening upper level trough drops
into the Great Lakes region (Monday afternoon/Tue). This will
bring us nearly daily 20-50 percent chances for showers and
storms through much of next week as it meanders slowly across
the Great Lakes region. Highs will range from 75 to 85 degrees,
with lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

For the most part kept the consensus pops for now during the long
term period. Per the ECMWF, the incoming trough may deepen into an
upper low by Thursday/Friday before it moves eastward into the lower
Great Lakes for Friday night-Saturday. The GFS is weaker and more
broad with the trough than the ECMWF, and is (as usual) more
progressive. However, both models seem to agree today that Wed
afternoon into Thu appear to be our best shot for precipitation-so
kept the 40-55 percent chances we had going on those days (slightly
lower than last night, around 60 percent). In the wake of the trough
is a broad upper level ridge that builds into the midwest/Upper
Great Lakes by Friday (or Friday evening depending on the model),
with the ECMWF more amplified than the GFS. Because of this it
suppresses any convection from Friday into next Sunday. The GFS has
a weaker ridge and has a stronger mid level trough develop over the
central plains by Friday, which kicks off a surface system that
lifts northeast into our area for Saturday. Confidence is low to
medium at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Outside of some diurnal cumulus and higher clouds, VFR
conditions expected through this TAF period with high pressure
in place over the region.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Andersen