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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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153 FXUS63 KIWX 141739 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 139 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * There are periodic chances (30-60%) for showers and storms today through Tuesday night. Storms could be locally severe with damaging winds and flooding the primary threats during this timeframe. * Hot and humid conditions are expected today and Monday, dependent on storm coverage and timing. Monday`s afternoon peak heat indices may near 100 degrees. * Cooler, drier weather is anticipated Wednesday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An unsettled pattern will linger through at least Tuesday with numerous convectively aided disturbances tracking east-southeast over an enhanced theta-e plume draped across the Upper Midwest and western/southern Great Lakes. Periodically stormy and humid wx will result with low confidence in daily high temps and convective chances/intensity as guidance struggles to resolve mesoscale features (composite outflows) and the low amplitude nature to convectively modulated perturbations. The result is a forecast littered by chance PoPs, SPC marginal to slight severe outlooks, and high humidity. For this morning, the first outflow dominant MCS is bring decaying convection into the area. Wind gusts to 30 mph and locally heavy rainfall remain possible immediately behind the leading sfc outflow. Outflow stable bubble might put a lid on convection for much of the day otherwise, though hard to remove PoPs as low level southwest flow likely erodes MLCIN at some point with renewed scattered storms possible along the trailing composite outflow boundary. Prospects for another more organized outflow dominant MCS increases later this evening into the early overnight. The local area remains divorced from more favorable deep layer shear to the northwest tonight through Monday night, with deeper shear even trailing a stronger synoptic cold front by the Tuesday/Tuesday evening periods. This would suggest more outflow dominant convective clusters (isolated strong-severe convection - wind primary threat) with the lacking shear and impressive MUCAPE reservoir in the vicinity. With that said, more intense MCS`s can produce a more intense wind field allowing for greater shear/outflow balance, highest probs on occurrence Monday night. The high pwat airmass, and the potential for convective outflows to slow or back build, also brings excessive rainfall and flooding into the mix with any MCS, especially in nw IN and sw MI given recent heavy rainfall from Beryl`s remnants. There has been a consistent signal in model guidance for excessive rainfall Monday night. Monday still appears to be the best opportunity for near advisory peak PM heat indices (100F). A more comfortable continental airmass will provide relief from the active wx and humidity mid week through next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Convective overturning in wake of current intense convection moving through ern through cntrl IN will yield quiet wx near term. However strong upstream destabilization underway across cntrl/ern IA ewd through nrn IL ahead of robust MCV that arose from overnight storms across the Dakotas. Expect renewed storm develop in this area toward sunset and tracking e-sewd this evening. Ewd extent owing to longevity and intensity/evolution in time in doubt and left out attm invof KFWA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...T