Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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202 FXUS63 KIWX 151004 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 604 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Any early AM rain/storms will give way to hot and humid conditions this afternoon. Heat indices may peak near 100 degrees. * Another round of thunderstorms (50-70%) will be possible tonight. Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds and heavy rain the primary threats, especially across western Indiana. * A cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday evening with additional shower and thunderstorm chances (40-60%). * Less humid and dry conditions anticipated midweek through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The next in our series of outflow dominant convective systems will exit early this morning with hot, humid and dry conditions anticipated by this afternoon after boundary layer recovery. Peak heat indices mid 90s to near 100 anticipated. The next, and hopefully last, MCS still looking likely this evening into the early overnight as a more pronounced shortwave drops southeast over the impressive MUCAPE reservoir still draped across the Upper Midwest and western/southern Great Lakes. Slightly better low-mid level flow support higher probs for severe convection with opportunity for shear/cold pool balance. Questions remain however on timing and how this potential MCS evolves along a leftover convective outflow boundary draped back across northern IL and eastern IA. Forecast becomes a bit muddled into Tuesday and Tuesday night as a synoptic cold front sags through in advance of an amplifying upper trough. Should be some clouds around with more organized convection likely to focus along a pre-frontal feature associated with tonight`s convection. Whether this is over our central/southern zones, or off to our south, remains of lower confidence. Did lower PoPs a bit to account for the uncertainty. A dry and less humid post-frontal airmass remains on tap Wednesday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 542 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Impulses in northwest flow have been active the past few days generating convection over northern Indiana including the terminals. The past systems have brought activity over the area at night. This most recent system moving through the area has evolved into a MVC north of the area and brought showers, storms and lower ceilings and visibilities to the terminals at this time. Another upper level system was well upstream over the Northern Plains into the Canadian interior. This next disturbances in northwest flow will reach the area early tonight. Have made general timing and intensity of showers and storms based the the last SPC expectations and adding some detail based the latest few HRRR runs. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ012>015-020-022-103- 104-203-204. OH...None. MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ078-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Skipper