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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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167 FXUS63 KIWX 170523 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, primarily south of US 24. Confidence is low. - 20% chance of showers on Wednesday. -Cooler, less humid and dry through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A cold front is gradually dropping south into extreme northern Illinois as of this midday writing. Ahead of it, dew points are well into the 70s or at least upper-60s. This, paired with temperatures near 80 is resulting in plentiful CAPE. However, low stratus over northwest Indiana and high clouds approaching from a MCS across southwest Illinois is complicating our local environment. CAMs continue to advertise scattered thunderstorms ahead of this cold front this afternoon and even well into the overnight, despite a cap noted on forecast soundings. Upper- level forcing is far removed from the cold front as it drifts south such that the cold front really is our only forcing mechanism . The cold front thus far has struggled to produce more than a few showers and shallow cumulus over southern Michigan and southern Wisconsin. Overall, I`ll maintain the inherited forecast through early tonight, thus keeping 20-40% POPs around. Later tonight, there are indications showers and thunderstorms might develop along an outflow boundary or MCV across my southern two rows of counties. Confidence is low, and I have some concern this MCS passing through southern IN could have a negative impact on our storm chance overnight. I`ve blended my POPs as best as I could with NWS Indy. A large upper-level trough drops in through the Great Lakes tomorrow presenting a low chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms. This, as dew points remain somewhat elevated in the mid-60s, until falling through the afternoon. In the days that follow, absolutely beautiful weather (and a welcome break from very active weather) is expected through at least Sunday, perhaps into Monday. During this time, more sun that clouds and below-normal temperatures; highs generally in the 70s to round out the week before gradually warming to the low-80s for Sunday. This warming trend occurs as return flow from the Gulf brings warm air advection and eventually the chance for showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Isolated showers had developed near a diffuse cool front along with weak upper level support. According to the latest surface analysis, the front had dipped just south of the Michigan line with light winds over the entire area. Fog was developing in the very humid airmass with Plymouth already down to 2SM. Given the latest obs and trends, decided to go with IFR fog at SBN, although cloud cover may limit the lower visibilities. Otherwise, skies should gradually clear from the northwest as drier air spreads over the area. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Skipper