360
FXUS63 KIWX 172325
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
725 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm exit the area early this
  evening.

- Less humid and cooler conditions for the remainder of the
  week.

- The next slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms is
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and a couple thunderstorms are tracking southeast along a
secondary cold front this afternoon (note WPC`s primary cold front
analyzed across southern IN). The overall environment is unfavorable
for upscale growth given poor mesoscale conditions. Forward speed is
swift, however, and this front will exit the area within the next 2-
3 hours. An upper-level low is still noted upstream with very little
moisture. This will drop south-southeast and could bring some
sprinkles tonight through early Thursday to far northwest Indiana.

Refreshing, cooler and dry for the new few days in the wake of this
upper-level low. High pressure settles over Illinois by Thursday
afternoon, gradually shifting through the weekend. As it shifts
east, return flow will result in slowly rising temperatures such
that highs in the low-80s are expected perhaps as early as Saturday,
but more likely Sunday. Scattered showers and storms threaten to
return to the forecast Monday in some guidance. Other members
suggest high pressure prevails a bit longer (quite plausible) which
would delay POPs until midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

With the moisture column pretty well dried out after the recent cold
frontal passage, adverse flight conditions will be harder to come by
during this TAF period. Cross-over temperatures are met overnight,
but the column still appears dry enough to restrict fog to ground
fog at best as even NAM bufkit soundings seem to indicate. Winds
will continue to remain predominantly out of the north and will be
able to reach around 10 kts during the mid to late morning hours on
Thursday. Gusts will be more limited to less than 20 kts with the
low level jet dissipating as we head into the afternoon time frame
when better mixing can be attained.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller