783
FXUS63 KIWX 180354
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1154 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm exit the area early this
  evening.

- Less humid and cooler conditions for the remainder of the
  week.

- The next slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms is
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and a couple thunderstorms are tracking southeast along a
secondary cold front this afternoon (note WPC`s primary cold front
analyzed across southern IN). The overall environment is unfavorable
for upscale growth given poor mesoscale conditions. Forward speed is
swift, however, and this front will exit the area within the next 2-
3 hours. An upper-level low is still noted upstream with very little
moisture. This will drop south-southeast and could bring some
sprinkles tonight through early Thursday to far northwest Indiana.

Refreshing, cooler and dry for the new few days in the wake of this
upper-level low. High pressure settles over Illinois by Thursday
afternoon, gradually shifting through the weekend. As it shifts
east, return flow will result in slowly rising temperatures such
that highs in the low-80s are expected perhaps as early as Saturday,
but more likely Sunday. Scattered showers and storms threaten to
return to the forecast Monday in some guidance. Other members
suggest high pressure prevails a bit longer (quite plausible) which
would delay POPs until midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Skies have cleared over northern Indiana, although some SCT060
clouds were over Lake Michigan into northeast IL. A fairly
strong subsidence inversion will set up Thursday. Moisture
trapped at and just under the base of the inversion should allow
some scattered cumulus and flattened stratocu to form. Otherwise,
chilly air will spread over the area the rest of the night. It
looks like the airmass will be too dry to allow radiation for to
form; however, can not rule out a very ground fog intrusion in
either terminal, but at this time it does not look like it will
be operationally significant.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM CDT Thursday for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Skipper