831
FXUS63 KIWX 211043
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
643 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Dry conditions are expected through Monday afternoon when a
 very slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm will be possible.
 High temperatures will range from 75 to 85 degrees through the
 week. Lows will be in the 60s.

-There are daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
 through Thursday, with the best potential Wednesday into
 Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

With ridging still in control over the area, dry weather looks
to continue through Monday afternoon into early evening when
there is a very slight chance of an instability
shower/thunderstorm with a weak shortwave moving through. Most
of the area will likely stay dry on Monday. Did keep pops lower
as confidence in the occurrence of the showers/thunderstorms is
low at this time. High temperatures this week will remain
fairly stable with highs each day in the low to mid 80s.
However, on Wednesday and Thursday a few locations will see
slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s with a
trough axis/frontal boundary associated with a Hudson Bay Canada
low circulation. This will also be the better chances for
showers and thunderstorms with surface based instability values
Wednesday into Thursday around 2000 J/kg. The limiting factor
will be shear with values 25 kts or less so any thunderstorms
are expected to remain non-severe.

In the wake of the cool front on Thursday evening ridging again
builds in from the west and we return to dry weather conditions
into the weekend with a return to slightly warmer temperatures
with highs on Friday through Sunday in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through tomorrow early morning when
increased moisture will bring reduced dew point depressions
with the overnight diurnal cooling and light winds which will
increase chances for some patchy fog. Vsbys drop to MVFR for
KFWA Monday morning and down to IFR levels possibly for KSBN.
Confidence is not high in exact locations/timing due to the
patchy nature of the fog.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Andersen