965
FXUS63 KIWX 161652
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1252 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There are low chances (20-30%) for a few showers and storms today
  into Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected.

* Dry weather, seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
  midweek through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mature MCV now into southeast MI has forced an active trailing
composite outflow boundary south into central IN/IL. This will
likely remain the focus for more additional activity today into
tonight, though will have to monitor for widely scattered convection
to redevelop locally as moderate diurnal instability takes place on
the northern fringe of the stable bubble and incoming synoptic cold
front. Shear and instability parameters do not support organized
severe convection. Dry and seasonably humid otherwise today.

An upper level trough will amplify southeast through the Great Lakes
Wednesday into Wednesday night with low chances for a few additional
showers along the associated synoptic cold front. A low level
anticyclone then follows in behind this front through this
weekend with comfortable humidity and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Stratus persists across KSBN, though some breaks are noted. More
is noted upstream and have therefore opted for a dominant period
of stratus for the remainder of the daylight hours.

Isolated thunderstorms remain in the cards through early
tonight, though confidence in storms occurring at the terminals
is medium at best. Given the location of the cold front and the
ongoing stratus at KSBN, thunderstorms there seem unlikely. At
KFWA, however, CAMs remain steadfast in storms developing west
of there and drifting east. An additional batch of storms is
probable thereafter, but the overall envrionment is
questionable.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Brown