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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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165 FXUS63 KIWX 120113 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 913 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some patchy fog possible again late tonight into early Friday morning, especially west of Interstate 69. - Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms between Friday and the middle of next week. There is a potential of some strong to severe thunderstorms at times during the Sunday through Tuesday period. - 90 degree high temperatures are most possible Sunday through Tuesday of next week, dependent on thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have diminished across most of the area this evening with development of weak surface based CIN. The exception is across far southwest portions of the area where some isolated stronger showers continue in a pocket of locally stronger low level convergence and best lingering SBCAPEs on order of 500-1000 J/kg. While lower coverage trend should continue through remainder of the evening, upstream flow is highly perturbed with several short waves progressing across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region into Friday. Will maintain these low PoPs through the night with some slight increase in coverage possible again overnight as a vort max across the Corn Belt gets sheared into the Ohio River Valley. With some possibility of lower cloud cover across the west, a better source of near sfc moisture from recent rainfall, and light winds...will add some patchy fog mention for areas west of Interstate 69 late tonight into early Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Orphaned disturbance over nw IL caught within elongated leftover upper troughing through the wrn lakes will slowly liftout into ern ON by late Fri. A ribbon of sfc confluence and weak moisture return out ahead of this sys stretches from ern IA into cntrl IN and the focus for aftn tstorm development. Cam solutions are fairly robust and initiate convection after 21Z far south/sw in proximity to this zone of weak convergence which will move little if any through this aftn. Certainly favorable destabilization underway here and will retain low chc pops to account. Otherwise general liftout of this sys will afford some nwd spread in weak return flow overnight of which may prompt some shower development late toward ne IN/nw OH similar to what was observed across nrn IL this morning. Tomorrow sfc confluence zone expected to mix further north into the US6 corridor and again support at least isolated storms in the aftn timed with favorable destabilization. No severe wx is expected either today or tomorrow in light of poor mid lvl lapse rates, weak forcing and weak flow. However that will all change significantly in coming days as the plains centered thermal ridge amplifies and heats, leading to a potentially stormy period Sun-Tue. Otherwise in tandem with upper ridge building, a return of very warm and humid wx is on tap. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this evening, primarily along and east of the Interstate 69 corridor. Several outflows from these showers have triggered additional showers and a few thunderstorms. Waning diurnal instability should limit additional thunderstorms with probability of thunder affecting KFWA too low for an inclusion at this time. Coverage of showers should diminish through 03Z, but isolated to scattered showers should persist into late evening/early overnight as a pair of upper level upstream short waves track across the southern Great Lakes. The last of these short waves should be slow to track across northern Indiana on Friday with weak low level convergence reflection of this wave. This should yield some additional isolated-scattered convection but confidence in coverage and location is too low to include. VFR conditions are expected through most of the period, with possible exception of late tonight/early Friday with some patchy fog potential. Currently expecting best chances of this fog west of Interstate 69 where some reduced cloud cover is possible overnight and where remnant low level moisture from recent rain is more plentiful. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...T AVIATION...Marsili