047
FXUS63 KIWX 121733
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Periodic chances (20-40%) for thunderstorms Saturday night through
  Tuesday. There is the potential for severe storms, especially
  later Sunday night through Tuesday.

* Hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday and Monday,
  dependent on storm coverage and timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Broad but weakening upper trough axis positioned through wrn MI will
rotate out into se ON by sunset. Residual convergent moist axis
invof the tri-state line and south may yield an isolated shower
or storm this aftn with continued heating/destabilization
otherwise the rest of the area expected to stay dry.

Return flow begins in earnest late day in response to building
thermal ridge out west and developing low pressure across NE. While
most cam solutions are dry tomorrow aftn will hold w/slight chc
mention west and south to account for upticking theta-e ridge.

Thereafter large scale pattern aloft from the nrn plains through the
lakes/OH valley turns quite interesting. Substantial
heating/moisture advection beneath building upper ridge across the
plains portents several episodes of strong to severe convection in
the coming days. How this plays out exactly in regard to timing and
potential severity remains in question given mesoscale system
development upstream over the Dakotas and upper midwest followed by
subsequent downstream evolution and timing which will ultimately
dictate the potential threats here. Suffice it to say a period of
hot and stormy wx looks likely Sun-Tue before a more vigorous cold
front swings through toward Wed and shunts the heat and moisture
south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR ceilings and light, variable winds will persist through the
TAF period. Given that rain chances are now 15% or less for the
day, have opted to remove any mentions of rain or storms from
the previous TAFs. Conditions should remain dry this afternoon
an overnight due to subsidence.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Johnson