202
FXUS63 KIWX 151004
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
604 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Any early AM rain/storms will give way to hot and humid conditions
  this afternoon. Heat indices may peak near 100 degrees.

* Another round of thunderstorms (50-70%) will be possible
  tonight. Thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds
  and heavy rain the primary threats, especially across western
  Indiana.

* A cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday evening with
  additional shower and thunderstorm chances (40-60%).

* Less humid and dry conditions anticipated midweek through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The next in our series of outflow dominant convective systems will
exit early this morning with hot, humid and dry conditions
anticipated by this afternoon after boundary layer recovery.
Peak heat indices mid 90s to near 100 anticipated.

The next, and hopefully last, MCS still looking likely this evening
into the early overnight as a more pronounced shortwave drops
southeast over the impressive MUCAPE reservoir still draped across
the Upper Midwest and western/southern Great Lakes. Slightly better
low-mid level flow support higher probs for severe convection with
opportunity for shear/cold pool balance. Questions remain however
on timing and how this potential MCS evolves along a leftover
convective outflow boundary draped back across northern IL and
eastern IA.

Forecast becomes a bit muddled into Tuesday and Tuesday night as a
synoptic cold front sags through in advance of an amplifying
upper trough. Should be some clouds around with more organized
convection likely to focus along a pre-frontal feature
associated with tonight`s convection. Whether this is over our
central/southern zones, or off to our south, remains of lower
confidence. Did lower PoPs a bit to account for the
uncertainty. A dry and less humid post-frontal airmass remains
on tap Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Impulses in northwest flow have been active the past few days
generating convection over northern Indiana including the
terminals. The past systems have brought activity over the area
at night.  This most recent system moving through the area has
evolved into a MVC north of the area and brought showers, storms
and lower ceilings and visibilities to the terminals at this
time. Another upper level system was well upstream over the
Northern Plains into the Canadian interior. This next disturbances
in northwest flow will reach the area early tonight. Have made
general timing and intensity of showers and storms based the the
last SPC expectations and adding some detail based the latest few
HRRR runs.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ012>015-020-022-103-
     104-203-204.
OH...None.
MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ078-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Skipper