606
FXUS63 KIWX 151645
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and humid conditions this afternoon. Heat indices may
  peak near 100 degrees.

* Another round of thunderstorms expected tonight. Thunderstorms
  can produce damaging winds and heavy rain.

* A cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday evening with
  additional shower and thunderstorm chances (40-60%).

* Less humid and dry conditions anticipated midweek through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The next in our series of outflow dominant convective systems will
exit early this morning with hot, humid and dry conditions
anticipated by this afternoon after boundary layer recovery.
Peak heat indices mid 90s to near 100 anticipated.

The next, and hopefully last, MCS still looking likely this evening
into the early overnight as a more pronounced shortwave drops
southeast over the impressive MUCAPE reservoir still draped across
the Upper Midwest and western/southern Great Lakes. Slightly better
low-mid level flow support higher probs for severe convection with
opportunity for shear/cold pool balance. Questions remain however
on timing and how this potential MCS evolves along a leftover
convective outflow boundary draped back across northern IL and
eastern IA.

Forecast becomes a bit muddled into Tuesday and Tuesday night as a
synoptic cold front sags through in advance of an amplifying
upper trough. Should be some clouds around with more organized
convection likely to focus along a pre-frontal feature
associated with tonight`s convection. Whether this is over our
central/southern zones, or off to our south, remains of lower
confidence. Did lower PoPs a bit to account for the
uncertainty. A dry and less humid post-frontal airmass remains
on tap Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The onset of thunderstorms was delayed with this TAF issuance,
but the overall TAFs remained on track. All eyes will be on
eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin for thunderstorm development
this evening which are anticipated to race eastward. The
strength of these storms by the time they reach KFWA is
questionable.

Behind the thunderstorms, non-zero chance of bkn015 stratus near
and after daybreak. However, guidance is highly variable with
the time and location. Trends will be monitored behind the line
of storms.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ012>015-020-022-103-
     104-203-204.
OH...None.
MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ078-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Cobb