964
FXUS63 KIWX 060708
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and less humid today, but more seasonable for Sunday.
  Mostly dry weather is in place for the weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are in store for the bulk of the
  work week, but the warmest highs are forecast for Monday with
  90 degrees possible for areas south of US-24.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for later Monday
  through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Much cooler and drier air moves in behind Friday`s cold front and
that helps to reduce humidity back to more comfortable levels with
dew points in the 60s. However, with the jet stream still draped
across the lower Great Lakes, various maximums of vorticity traverse
the southern tear drop of Lake Michigan and provide opportunities
for weak lift and convergence, and when paired with small areas of
moisture and cooler low level temperatures, sprinkles could result.
This likely occurs along and west of US-31 and south of the Toll
Road today, but generally north of Winamac. There may be a period
between late morning and some time this afternoon where it wanes,
but there is some confidence in another period of sprinkles later
this afternoon into the early evening just south of the
aforementioned area. Areas farther east are removed from the better
convergence and temperatures in the low to mid levels are slightly
warmer and so they are expected to be drier. In accordance with the
cooler temperatures in the atmosphere, surface temperatures will
struggle to exceed 80 degrees today.

Saturday evening, high pressure nudges in, and then escapes the area
Sunday night. As such, expect a dry Sunday. Some lighter warm
advection comes in during the afternoon Sunday and that will help
high temperatures return to seasonable temperatures, in the 80s.
Then, between Sunday night and Monday afternoon, a mid level trough
edges closer to the region from the Northern Plains making it more
possible for dying thunderstorms, likely just in the form of
showers, to traverse the Lake MI-adjacent counties. Will continue to
carry times of slight PoPs during this period.

Dew points are expected to increase back into the 60s and a few
areas of 70 degree dew points will also be possible as a better
connection to the Gulf of Mexico becomes established on Monday.
Increased low level theta-e will also contribute to near-90s high
temperatures. With the trough now in a favorable position to provide
increased precipitation Monday evening/night in a similar setup to a
predecessor rain event (PRE) out ahead of a boundary moving through,
have allowed for chance PoPs later Monday through Tuesday. Any
precipitation that does form will have the opportunity to become
heavy with some instability to tap into and with how moist the
low levels are. 850 mb Tds surpass 10C and sfc dew points will
at least be in the mid to upper 60s.

The aforementioned boundary may stall in the vicinity of US-24
Tuesday night/Wednesday providing areas north of there with drier
weather, but cannot totally rule out some chance for precip south of
there. Models have some uncertainty moving forward with how quickly
the trough can pick and throw the remnants of Beryl to the eastern
seaboard between Wednesday and the end of the week. However, still
have some confidence in at least a slight chance for afternoon pop
up showers/storms Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoons. Highs
are expected to be right around seasonable during this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites as we deal with
the last gasp from our exiting low pressure system. An upper
level trough will swing through this morning, which are likely
bring some MVFR ceilings and sprinkles to KSBN between 11-18z.
There could be some MVFR ceilings at KFWA between 15-18z today
associated with the same trough, however I am less confident in
the persistence as as much of the guidance keeps things around
3000 feet. I did a tempo for 2500 ft for now and left out a
mention of showers as the wave appears to weaken and lift
northeastward through the day. Light winds ranging from SW to NW
today behind the trough, then the upper level ridge keeps us dry
and VFR from the afternoon onwards.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...MCD