597
FXUS63 KIWX 171844
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
244 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm exit the area early this
  evening.

- Less humid and cooler conditions for the remainder of the
  week.

- The next slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms is
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and a couple thunderstorms are tracking southeast along a
secondary cold front this afternoon (note WPC`s primary cold front
analyzed across southern IN). The overall environment is unfavorable
for upscale growth given poor mesoscale conditions. Forward speed is
swift, however, and this front will exit the area within the next 2-
3 hours. An upper-level low is still noted upstream with very little
moisture. This will drop south-southeast and could bring some
sprinkles tonight through early Thursday to far northwest Indiana.

Refreshing, cooler and dry for the new few days in the wake of this
upper-level low. High pressure settles over Illinois by Thursday
afternoon, gradually shifting through the weekend. As it shifts
east, return flow will result in slowly rising temperatures such
that highs in the low-80s are expected perhaps as early as Saturday,
but more likely Sunday. Scattered showers and storms threaten to
return to the forecast Monday in some guidance. Other members
suggest high pressure prevails a bit longer (quite plausible) which
would delay POPs until midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Main cold front was working southeast, currently between KSBN
and KFWA. Widely scattered showers have developed along it with
little if any lightning noted thus far. Cigs/vsbys have remained
VFR for those few locations that encounter a shower. Given the
fast and limited nature, have left any mention out of KFWA, with
the threat for a shower ending after 19Z. Thereafter flight
concerns should most likely be nil with the only outside concern
being some patchy ground ground later tonight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher