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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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964 FXUS63 KIND 190701 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 301 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant into this weekend - Seasonable warmth and increasing humidity returns by late this weekend - Chances for rain/t-storms and increasing clouds next week may help keep temperatures slightly below normal && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Comfortable mid July morning in progress as high pressure blankets the region. With clear skies and light winds early this morning... 06Z temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Tranquil weather is expected through tonight as high pressure remains the dominant influence across the Ohio Valley. Patchy fog is likely to form through the predawn hours...especially over the Wabash Valley where slightly higher dewpoints in the upper 50s were present. Any fog will burn off quickly after daybreak setting the stage for another spectacular day. The center of the high will linger across the lower Great Lakes and maintain a dry northeast flow through the boundary layer. Cloud coverage will be lower this afternoon than Thursday...but model soundings are favorable for at least some diurnal cu formation beneath a broad area of dry air and subsidence within the mid levels. Any cu will diminish near sunset tonight with mostly clear skies overnight. There is potential for some thin cirrus to lift north into parts of the area as deeper moisture advects into the Tennessee Valley and eastern half of Kentucky by early Saturday. Temps...a recovery in 850mb temps from Thursday supports a warmer day but fantastic by mid July standards. Low level thermals suggest highs ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s from north to south with low humidity levels. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 50s over much of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Most guidance shows upper riding remaining dominant across the western CONUS during the extended period with troughing further east. Initially at the surface, high pressure centered over the region will continue to provide dry conditions through the weekend. Weak SW flow aloft combined with slightly deeper mixing every day should lead to a gradual moderation of temperatures. Look for highs to return to near seasonal by the end of the weekend. High pressure is expected to weaken late Sunday into Monday allowing for deeper moisture to return northward. This will lead to increasing humidity and increasing chances for precipitation. The main uncertainty for rain chances lies in how much forcing will be present next week. Models generally show a few upper level impulses traversing the region next week though there are some differences regarding the timing, location, and intensity of these features. Limited confidence in exact details remains for these reasons. Despite the uncertainties, there is a general signal in guidance for subtle synoptic forcing as a weak upper low slowly moves across the area early-middle of next week. This combined with deeper moisture return supports a more unsettled pattern. Given the lack of greater forcing from the upper low, diurnal heating of an anomalously moist environment should help provide greater coverage of convection during the afternoon or early evening hours. Increasing clouds and rain chances could keep temperatures slightly below normal for much of next week. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1225 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Impacts - Patchy fog possible near sunrise Discussion: High pressure will maintain dry weather and little in the way of clouds through this evening. There remains some potential for patchy fog towards daybreak but coverage should remain localized and confidence is just not high enough to include in the terminals at this time. Cannot rule out scattered diurnal cu for the afternoon but skies should be mostly sunny overall. Expect northeast winds less than 10 kts through the forecast period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...Ryan