365
FXUS63 KILX 041525
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1025 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs
  in the low to mid 80s for the next several days. Normals for the
  first week of July are in the upper 80s for central and
  southeaster Illinois.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms today. 60-80% POPs south of
  I-74 this morning. A dry period this afternoon and evening,
  with the next round coming in after 10pm (40-60% chance).

- A mostly dry weekend ahead. The next potential for precipitation
  comes Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance) into the new week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Shortwave trough is lifting across central Illinois this hour with
the back edge of the main precip shield starting to work across the
lower Illinois River Valley with precip expected to end across most
of central Illinois by early to mid afternoon. Attention will turn
northwest to the next shortwave/closed upper low digging across the
Upper Midwest, though expect this will not begin to impact portions
of central Illinois until late this evening (close to midnight).

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy Independence Day! Comfortable temperatures settle in today
behind the departing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
More rain chances are on the books for today. The positive part of
it is that not the entire day will be rainy. In fact, the dry part
of the day for central and southeastern Illinois is during the
afternoon into the evening hours, when celebrations are taking
place. This morning, there is a 60-80% chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily for areas south of I-74. POPs significantly
drop for the afternoon and early evening (20-40%). The second round
of precipitation today comes around 10pm tonight, when POPs rebound
to 40-60%.

There are PWATS near 1.5 inches for today. QPF amounts aren`t
insane, with trace to 0.2 inches north of I-72 and 0.5 to 1.3 inches
south of I-72. The highest totals today are more likely to occur
south of I-70. However, the 00z HREF shows only a 10% chance of
greater than an inch south of I-70 and 50-60% chance of greater
than 0.10 inches forecast area wide.

After today, ridging builds over the Midwest, keeping temperatures
slightly below normal for the extended period. CPC has us in a near
to leaning below normal temperature outlook for the next 6-10 days.
Normals for the first week of July are in the upper 80s for central
and southeaster Illinois. HIghs through the extended are in the low
to mid 80s. Lows are expected range in the 60s.

Rain chances return Sunday afternoon into Monday as a weak
disturbance passes through. The highest chances occur during the day
Monday with 40-50% POPs.

Stay safe this 4th of July!

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today, outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds will be light and
south-southwesterly. There are some showers across the southern half
of the forecast area. All sites will see some rain this morning.
Based on model guidance, added in some VCTS for DEC and CMI for late
morning/early afternoon. BMI is starting the day with some locally
dense fog, which should lift quickly this morning. Ceilings for all
other sites start VFR but will drop through the period to MVFR, with
SPI dropping slower than the rest. MVFR ceiling will hang around for
most of the 12z TAF period but may bounce around as the showers and
thunderstorms pass through today.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$