716
FXUS61 KILN 141055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy fog will be possible this morning.  High clouds have
started to move in from a complex of storms northwest of the
region. There is some uncertainty with convective activity
across the region today. Current thinking is that the activity
this morning will start to decrease and stay across northern or
north of the region. There will then be the potential for
additional development this afternoon as a weak disturbance
moves through. There is quite a bit of instability this
afternoon as well. Storms that develop this afternoon and into
the early evening hours will have the potential to produce
damaging wind gusts.

Since there is greater potential for storm development across
northern portions of the region these areas will be slightly
cooler than southern portions of the area. Have a special
weather statement out for southwestern portions of the region
today to account for the potential for heat index values near
100. There is too much convective uncertainty at this time to
go with an advisory, however highlight the heat with the HWO and
the SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
While models are showing variable solutions for convective
activity during this time, in general have a decreasing trend in
convection at the start of the short term. There will then be
the potential for additional development of storms overnight as
well. Heading into the day on Monday, several models are showing
some convective activity especially across northern portions of
the region. There will be the potential for severe weather
across primarily northern portions of the region for Monday.

It is this chance of convective activity that the decision was
to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday. There is the
potential for a large portion of the region to hit heat advisory
criteria on Monday, however given uncertainty in convection
decided to hold off on issuing an advisory until there is more
agreement in thunderstorm timing and placement.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front will approach from the northwest through the day on
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 80s in the
northwest to the mid 90s across our southeast with heat indices of
100 degrees or so possible in the afternoon. As we destabilize
through the day and the front approaches, expect an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,
especially across our northwest.

There are still some timing differences with the front, but it
should slowly sag southeast across our area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With good moisture advection ahead of the front, expect
fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to push slowly south
across our area. PWS will climb up in excess of 2 inches along and
ahead of the front and with some training possible, there will be
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.
Deep layer shear will also slowly increase along and ahead of the
front so a few strong to severe storms will also be possible with
damaging wind the primary threat.

A drier and cooler airmass will settle in behind the front through
the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
normal Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Temperatures will moderate a bit heading into the weekend
with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any fog will quickly dissipate this morning. There is still some
uncertainty with convective timing and placement, however
models have come into a little better agreement with afternoon
and early evening convection with a focus across the northern
TAF sites KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK. Have a shra and vcts mention in
at those TAF sites and then taper it to vcts at the other area
TAF sites. Tsra will likely need to be added in some of the TAF
sites for this afternoon, however confidence was not high enough
to include at this time. There will then be a lull in the
precipitation going into the first part of the overnight. There
are some indications that there will be additional
precipitation late in the overnight hours tonight. At this point
only handled this with a vcsh mention.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...