889
FXUS61 KILN 091045
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will interact with a weak surface trough that slides
into the area leading to a few showers this morning. This is
ahead of the remnants of Beryl which are forecast to track from
the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley today and
then northeast across the area tonight and into the Great Lakes
Wednesday. Moisture will increase with widespread precipitation
developing late in day into tonight. Locally heavy rain will be
possible. High pressure will then build in for Thursday and
Friday offering dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sheared out northern stream shortwave pivots thru the Great
Lakes with weakening surface trof slipping into the northwest
and dissipating. Forcing is weak but with isentropic lift across
the northwest a few showers will possible across the west-
northwest this morning.

Remnants of Beryl is forecast to eject northeast from the
Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley by evening. A warm
front is forecast to develop into ILN/s southern forecast area
ahead of this low pressure system this afternoon. Scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage across the southwest in a region of favorable moisture
transport.

As a 40-45kt southerly low level jet comes into play this
evening expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to increase in
coverage. Hodographs will take on a favorable orientation with
backed low level winds and increased flow. Also, LCLs will lower
as column moistens up. Instability around 1000 J/kg will be
possible across the south late in the day into this evening
when conditions could become favorable for tornadoes, which is
observed on the eastern side of tropical remnants.

The degree of instability is uncertain so this situation is
highly conditional with regards to tornado potential but will
be closely monitored this afternoon and evening.

Showers and some thunderstorms will become widespread generally
north and west of I-71 tonight. Given the expected track of the
surface low, the most favored region of widespread heavy rain
is expected to be to our west. But with tropical moisture (PWATs
2+ inches, cannot rule out the potential for locally heavy
rainfall.

Expect a gradient in temperatures on today with highs in the
lower 80s northwest to the lower 90s in the southeast. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s west to the lower 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Surface low over Indiana to lift northeast across the Great
Lakes Wednesday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
to pivot northeast of the area but a continued threat for pcpn
persists with trailing surface cold front pivoting thru the
area. Pressure gradient increases around the low with west winds
gusting up to 35 to 40 mph possible.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler - ranging from the
mid/upper 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The remnants of Beryl will be moving northeast of the area on
Wednesday night. A trailing cold front will be pushing east of the
area at the same time and cooler, drier air will be moving into the
Ohio Valley. Rain chances reduce through the night. Forecast lows
drop into the lower to middle 60s. Temperatures remain on the cool
side for Thursday and Thursday night when the winds remain out of
the northwest.

Southerly winds redevelop over the area by Friday and persist into
the start of next week. Temperatures return to above average along
with high humidity. Diurnal instability will be possible each day
along with chances for showers and storms each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid and high level will continue to thicken this morning as
moisture increases ahead of the remnants of Beryl.

The remnants of Beryl will overspread our area this afternoon
into tonight. This will result in an increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight. In
the very moist environment brief IFR conditions will be possible
in any shower/storm.

As moisture increases expect ceilings to drop to MVFR category
late tonight with a period of IFR likely as we head into
Wednesday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR